The Carter Doctrine once positioned America as protector of global oil flows, but decades of sanctions and military interventions have transformed the US into a destabilizing force in energy markets. The writer, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, argues that Washington's aggressive sanctions policies and military adventurism have created unprecedented volatility.

Maximum pressure sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, combined with restrictions on Russian oil exports, have upended global trade patterns. The shadow fleet has emerged to circumvent these restrictions, while the Strait of Hormuz faces potential closure amid rising tensions. Qatar has already suspended gas production, and Gulf producers are beginning to shut in oil output as storage facilities fill.

Oil prices have surged, particularly for jet fuel where markets are most constrained. Asia faces the greatest impact, with Japan, Taiwan and other US allies heavily dependent on Gulf fuel. Both China and India report supply shortfalls, while Europe struggles with renewed price spikes following Ukraine-related energy shortfalls. The Trump administration now seeks mitigation strategies including strategic petroleum reserve releases, but these measures may prove insufficient if conflict persists.