The US has created a global oil supply crisis by attacking Iran without consulting allies, leaving the Strait of Hormuz blocked and threatening unprecedented market disruption. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's admission that shipping remains open only if Iran stops shooting reveals the fundamental problem: the US launched military action without a clear plan to secure vital oil routes.

Iran controls the strait, through which 20% of global oil supply flows, and can continue attacking shipping with missiles, drones, and mines. The International Energy Agency warns this represents the largest supply disruption in oil market history. While markets assume normal flows will resume by April, analysts like Matthew Klein argue oil prices could exceed $200 per barrel if the strait remains blocked, triggering inflation, higher interest rates, and economic recession.

The crisis extends beyond oil to gas, fertilizers, and petrochemicals crucial for food production, particularly affecting Asia. Russia stands to benefit unambiguously while US allies, alienated by erratic Trump administration behavior, refuse to help. The US must now solve the problem it created, though its credibility with traditional allies has evaporated. This predictable disaster stems from attacking Iran without thinking through consequences - a failure that could reshape global energy markets and geopolitics.