Two months after Donald Trump announced a $40bn insurance programme to revive shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the US Development Finance Corporation has written not a single policy. Chubb and AIG were recruited to help provide cover, but the scheme requires US naval escorts that have never materialized. Only two ships received military protection under the short-lived "Project Freedom" effort in early May.

The programme never gained traction because it demanded a naval escort that hasn't been established. A DFC spokesperson confirmed that the facility's purpose is to insure ships transiting under naval escort, and none have occurred. Marine broker Ellis Morley said insurance availability hasn't been the core issue—physical threats to crews, vessels, and cargoes have deterred shipowners from risking transit.

Current insurance rates for ships in the Gulf sit between 3 to 8 percent of vessel cost, up from a fraction of a percentage point before the conflict. At least 38 ships have been attacked and 11 seafarers killed since the fighting began. Western insurers operate on a don't-ask-don't-tell basis to avoid IRGC sanctions exposure, while most vessels pay tolls to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or negotiate directly with Tehran.