President Trump's threat to impose 25% tariffs on European auto imports would hit Germany's export-dependent economy hard, potentially costing €15bn short-term and €30bn long-term according to the Kiel Institute. These tariffs would also raise costs for US industry and consumers already facing economic pressures from the Iran conflict, with the EU potentially retaliating through its Anti-Coercion Instrument.

Trump's plan to withdraw 5,000 US troops from Germany and cancel missile deployments could harm US interests more than Europe's. US bases in Europe are crucial for force projection in Africa, Central Asia, and the Middle East. The cancellation of long-range missile systems particularly concerns Europe as it leaves a conventional deterrence gap following Russia's deployment of nuclear-capable Iskander missiles.

Europe is accelerating plans for defense autonomy, with German experts publishing a "roadmap for overcoming critical dependencies" estimating costs of €500bn over a decade. While substantial, this represents less than the €750bn the EU spent on pandemic recovery. Faced with Russia's war in Europe and an unreliable US ally, Europe has no time to lose in achieving greater defense independence.