Saga, the UK over-50s holiday and insurance specialist, is celebrating its 75th anniversary with a striking share-price rebound. After a troubled decade under private-equity owners CVC and Permira — which saddled the group with heavy debt and a failed merger with the AA — Saga has refocused on its core brand. It swapped insurance underwriting for distributing third-party policies and doubled down on cruises, which now generate 49% of revenue. The strategy has paid off: Saga shares have more than tripled over the past year, making it the third-best performer in the FTSE All-Share and outpacing even AI-linked Computacenter. The stock trades at its highest level since early 2020, though still about a quarter of its 2014 IPO price after share-count adjustments.

Demographics underpin the optimism. The UK’s ageing population means the over-50s accounted for 54p of every pound of consumer spending in 2018, a share the International Longevity Centre forecasts will rise to 63p by 2040, with fastest growth in recreation, transport and household services. Saga targets £100mn underlying pre-tax profit by January 2030 — more than double recent full-year earnings — supported by roughly 7% annual sales growth in both holidays (mostly cruises, including a growing river operation) and insurance, per Visible Alpha. Debt reduction is also critical: net debt of about £500mn (over 3× EBITDA) must fall to roughly £250mn, according to Berenberg estimates. Analysts expect earnings to jump ~75% by 2030, and the shares now trade at 14× forward earnings, up from 10× a year ago — a comfortable mid-fleet valuation after a choppy history.