Europe's largest renewable jet fuel producer, Neste, warned the nascent market risks sliding into a price war with China, drawing parallels to damage caused by Chinese steel overcapacity. Heikki Malinen, Neste's CEO, emphasized the importance of a level playing field as his company has invested heavily in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production despite emerging competition.

The Finnish company has spent nearly $10 billion transforming from traditional oil refiner to renewable fuels producer, including a €2.5bn Rotterdam expansion set to boost capacity by over 60% by 2028. With annual SAF production of 1.5 million tonnes—matching current European demand—Neste faces growing Chinese exports that began entering the market late last year and are projected to continue rising through 2026.

Despite potential anti-dumping duties and concerns over EU mandates being watered down, Neste remains committed to airlines as core customers. While renewable diesel offers stronger demand and better margins, Malinen affirmed the company's long-term strategy in SAF, emphasizing reliability over short-term gains despite SAF's higher costs compared to conventional jet fuel.