The Iran conflict has delivered an unexpected windfall to national oil companies (NOCs), with governments recording revenues unseen in years. Yet this financial boost serves as the strongest warning against doubling down on oil dependence. The author, former CEO of Petrobras and former Brazilian senator, argues oil production doesn't insulate countries from instability; it amplifies exposure to price swings and supply disruptions.

NOCs control roughly half of global oil and gas production, 40% of sector investment, and two-thirds of known hydrocarbon reserves. These state-backed enterprises face a stark reality: they're investing approximately $425 billion in projects unlikely to be profitable under lower demand scenarios. Meanwhile, producer states could lose trillions in expected revenues by 2040 as energy transitions accelerate globally.

The current windfall represents a final opportunity to reduce dependence on fossil fuels rather than vindicating the old model. Companies like Petrobras possess the engineering capacity and market position to transition toward low-carbon fuels, electricity, and industrial decarbonization. Countries that build resilient economies using today's revenues will define the next era of prosperity, not those that extracted the most oil and gas.