The collapse of US‑Iran peace talks and President Trump’s vow to block the Strait of Hormuz sent oil markets into alarm mode on Sunday. Energy analyst Amrita Sen warned that a genuine blockade would cut off roughly 1.6 million barrels a day of Iranian crude, adding to the 10 million barrels already stalled. Traders therefore expect a sharp opening rally.

The chokepoint carries about a fifth of global oil and LNG flows, so the loss represents a material supply shock. Kevin Book of ClearView Energy said blocking tankers could push Brent above $110 per barrel, while Rystad’s Jorge León forecast prices would breach that level once trading resumes. The move also threatens jet‑fuel and diesel availability for the summer driving season.

After Friday’s dip—Brent settled at $95.20 and WTI at $96.57—prices are poised to rebound sharply. Analysts stress that without a durable ceasefire, any prolonged Hormuz closure will tighten physical markets and force paper prices upward. Investors should now price in a near‑term Brent target above $110 as the geopolitical risk premium widens, and could ripple through related petrochemical equities globally today.