ExxonMobil, Shell and Spain's Repsol re‑entered Alaska's Arctic after a near‑decade lull, snapping up leases in the National Petroleum Reserve. The March auction fetched a record $163 million, covering roughly 1 million acres of largely untapped terrain that the USGS estimates contains 8.8 million barrels of recoverable oil. Their bids signal a swift policy shift under the Trump administration, which has eased environmental restrictions and expanded lease sales.

Industry spending in Alaska climbed to a decade‑high $5 billion last year, up from $4.1 billion in 2024, according to Wood Mackenzie. The surge follows the $4.5 billion Pikka joint venture between Repsol and Santos, slated to start production this month at 80,000 barrels per day, and ConocoPhillips’ $9 billion Willow project, expected in 2029. Analysts see these developments reversing a steep output decline that hit 475,000 bpd in 2024.

Shell’s return surprised many after a 2015 exit that followed a $7 billion loss on a failed Arctic drill, while Exxon, long focused on Guyana, now eyes onshore opportunities in a well‑established basin. Both majors cite the strategic advantage of Alaska’s proximity to Asian markets and the need for supply diversification amid Middle‑East volatility. The revival has already drawn criticism from environmental groups warning of stranded‑asset risk.