US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent cited the oil futures curve as proof traders expect prices to ease, telling Fox News oil is already priced lower three to nine months out. But analysts from BCG, Morgan Stanley, and BP say reading the curve as a price forecast is a mistake, especially with the Iran war choking crude through the Strait of Hormuz.

Futures prices reflect hedging deals between producers locking in selling prices and buyers securing supply, not where oil will trade in six or twelve months. Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley and Spencer Dale, BP's former chief economist, both caution the curve's shape during a crisis says more about current tightness than future expectations.

History supports that skepticism. During Covid in 2020, two-year-ahead oil traded around $42 yet hit above $100 by 2022. By May 6, options markets implied a 10% chance oil could reach $140. Analysts say the futures curve offering a month-ahead forecast "is just not useful" amid this uncertainty.