AP Moller-Maersk lifted its 2026 earnings forecast by at least $1 billion, citing strong Far East demand spurred by new US tariffs. The Danish shipping giant now projects EBITDA between $8 billion and $10 billion, up from the previous $4.5 billion to $7 billion range. This marks a significant upward revision driven by immediate market conditions rather than long-term planning.

US retailers and consumer goods companies are rushing to stockpile Chinese inventory before the Trump administration imposes tariffs of at least 10% on dozens of countries starting in late July. These duties stem from investigations into forced labour practices, creating a temporary but substantial boost to shipping volumes. The surge in freight charges reflects panic buying and inventory hoarding across supply chains.

Shipping rates have climbed to levels not seen since the Red Sea crisis of late 2024, when Houthi rebels disrupted Suez Canal traffic. Clarksons reports the Shanghai containerised freight index sits just 13% below that summer peak. Time charter rates have reached post-pandemic highs amid capacity constraints from multiple pressures including the Iran conflict.

The confluence of geopolitical tensions and trade policy shifts has created a perfect storm for container shipping rates. While this environment benefits Maersk's bottom line, it signals broader inflationary pressures for global commerce as businesses navigate an increasingly fragmented trade landscape.