Donald Trump's attack on Iran is set to inflict a significantly larger economic blow on European and Asian economies than on the United States, analysts contend. While the US benefits from its status as a net energy exporter since 2017 and 2020, cushioning itself from the worst effects of surging oil and gas prices, major trading partners face severe inflation and GDP headwinds. Italy, Germany, and the UK are particularly vulnerable due to heavy reliance on volatile natural gas imports. Oxford Economics analysis projects that energy cost jumps will boost fourth-quarter inflation in Italy by over one percentage point, with the Eurozone and UK seeing increases exceeding half a point. China, a major oil and gas importer, faces pressure but can leverage stockpiles and Russian imports to mitigate impacts, though higher prices still threaten global demand. Brent crude leapt nearly 30% last week, with European gas prices surging over two-thirds, driven by fears of supply disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East losses.

The price surge risks forcing central banks into tighter policy and governments into costly interventions, while US petrol prices hit $3.32/gallon, a record high since 2024, posing political risks for Trump ahead of midterms. Norway and Canada stand to gain from higher prices, contrasting with Middle Eastern exporters facing production threats.