Oil markets face fresh turbulence as Middle East tensions collide with seasonal demand weakness, Gunvor's new chief warned. Gary Pedersen, who took over the world's fourth-largest independent oil trader following a December management buyout, said markets could become extremely volatile during April to June when demand dips between winter and the summer driving season.

The International Energy Agency has forecast demand will drop by 1.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter — the biggest decline since the Covid-19 pandemic. Pedersen noted prices could be driven more by headlines than underlying fundamentals. Despite the challenging outlook, Gunvor generated more than $1.6 billion in gross profits in the first quarter, matching its total for all of 2025.

The trader navigated recent disruptions by focusing on physical oil rather than derivatives, minimizing what Pedersen calls "stress risk." The company holds over $4 billion in assets in the US — roughly a third of its trading — and is now seeking to acquire refining assets in western markets. Pedersen, who arrived from hedge fund Millennium, is reshaping Gunvor into a more data-driven organisation.