Oliver Wyman’s latest risk study finds commodity traders swallowed billions of dollars in the first weeks of the Iran‑Israel conflict. A sudden spike in oil prices caught firms that had bet on a decline, forcing costly margin calls and expensive cargo replacements after more than 100 tankers were stranded in the Gulf. Traders such as Vitol and Trafigura found their positions reversed overnight. The misread amplified balance‑sheet strain.

Vitol and Trafigura each tapped $3bn of new credit lines to shore up working capital, while Gunvor added $1.5 billion. Oliver Wyman reports industry earnings fell to $92 billion last year, down from a 2022 peak of $115 billion. Oil‑desk profits slipped 15 percent, yet metals trading posted a 20 percent gain, highlighting a mixed performance across commodities overall.

The shock exposed how tightly trading houses tie physical shipments to price forecasts. Replacing stranded cargo at heightened rates added to the loss tally, according to senior risk officials. While higher volatility should lift trading margins, the report warns that earnings this year may not match 2022’s record, leaving firms to manage tighter cash flows for investors.