Goldman Sachs estimates the world has lost 14.5mn barrels of Gulf oil daily in April due to Strait of Hormuz closures. While production could restart quickly if the strait reopened, physical damage to energy infrastructure complicates recovery. Saudi Aramco previously claimed they could ramp up production in days rather than weeks, though this statement predates recent developments.

The outlook worsens when considering LNG facilities like Qatar's Ras Laffan complex, which may require years of repair after losing 17% of output. Oil wells cannot be turned on and off like switches; technical complications make restarts increasingly difficult the longer production remains offline. Tanker capacity constraints further hamper recovery prospects.

Goldman warns of "significant risks" that the final phase of recovery will take longer if the Strait remains closed. Despite potential quick rebounds for some production, the oil market will likely bear scars from the conflict for years. The longer infrastructure stays offline, the more complex and costly the restart becomes, potentially creating sustained price volatility.