Wheat prices have surged as escalating attacks by Russia and Ukraine on each other’s Black Sea ports threaten to choke off seaborne grain exports from two of the world’s biggest suppliers. Benchmark wheat futures have risen to near three‑year highs, with traders reacting to mounting disruption to export operations, including attacks on Ukraine’s biggest Danube port and on Russia’s Black Sea terminals at Novorossiysk. Together, the two countries supply about 30 % of the world’s wheat, and disruption across their Azov and Black Sea basin ports could reduce global supplies by as much as 86mn tonnes—or about 17 % of global cereal exports this year.

The impact is already visible: Ukrainian grain exports this month are down roughly 75 % from last year, and Russian exports have fallen from about 4.6mn tonnes in August 2025 to an expected 2.2mn tonnes this month. Alternative routes by rail and the Danube would replace only about 17mn tonnes, even if additional capacity became available. Andrey Sizov of Sov Econ warned that the market is underpricing the risk, while Tatiana Orlova of Oxford Economics forecasts global food prices to rise 11.8 % this year and 4.8 % in 2027, noting that the current escalation could trigger a more severe global food price shock.

Despite the rise in wheat futures, some analysts argue prices still do not adequately reflect the risk of prolonged disruption. Agribusiness research group BMI said the market is pricing in “relatively little sustained disruption,” a view it calls “misguided.” Sizov expects the three‑year high reached in wheat futures in July to soon be surpassed, as the Black Sea grain corridor remains under threat and weather‑related constraints on the Danube further limit export capacity.