Goldman Sachs lifted its outlook for Brent crude, now expecting the benchmark to average around $90 a barrel in the final quarter, up from an $80 forecast. The revision follows persistent supply disruptions in the Gulf as the Middle‑East conflict drags on, forcing analysts to push back the timeline for export normalization to the end of June.

Analysts now see U.S. crude at roughly $83 per barrel for Q4, revising the prior $75 estimate. They note that the war has shaved up to 12 million barrels a day from global inventories in April and left a lingering scar of about 500,000 barrels per day on Gulf production capacity, chiefly in Iraq this year and could strain downstream markets.

Brent climbed more than 1 % on Monday, topping $106, while longer‑dated futures trade near $85, signalling expectations of a pullback. The price surge has already squeezed Asian refiners, prompting cuts in output and tightening jet‑fuel supplies. With U.S. export limits looming, the gap between Brent and domestic crude may widen further, pressuring global manufacturers through the end of the year.