In 1895, Thomas Edison predicted that city carriages would soon be motorised, and a year later Gottlieb Daimler built the first motorised truck. Yet it took until the 1920s for trucks to dominate American roads, a delay that reshaped the workforce. The transition saw the age of “teamsters” rise as young workers avoided the profession, creating an older‑man’s job that declined sharply once trucks proliferated.

Today a similar pattern may be unfolding. In California, a working paper by Danial Salman shows a steep fall in commercial driver licences in zip codes where autonomous cars are tested. The sight of driverless vehicles could signal the end of the road for many aspiring truckers, echoing the 1890s anxiety.

The International Brotherhood of Teamsters, a union rooted in horse‑drawn wagons, now pushes for stricter regulation of autonomous tech. Meanwhile, the IRU reports 2.9mn unfilled truck‑driver positions worldwide, and Aurora plans only 1,000 autonomous trucks this year, highlighting the gap between hype and reality.

If fewer young people enter the trade, a self‑fulfilling prophecy may accelerate automation, raising costs and deepening shortages. Similar “anticipation factors” may already influence degrees, as UK applications for computing fall amid fears that AI will reduce demand for new developers.