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Fertiliser CEOs Cash In on War-Driven Stock Surge

Financial Times Companies •
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Executives at CF Industries have sold over $33.4 million in stock since the Iran conflict began, capitalizing on a 25% share price surge. The Illinois-based fertiliser manufacturer has emerged as a major beneficiary of Middle East turmoil, with its Donaldsonville ammonia complex benefiting from cheap US natural gas while Asian and European prices have skyrocketed.

Natural gas prices in the US have remained around $3 per million British thermal units, compared to $22 for the Asian benchmark JKM. This price differential has given CF Industries a structural advantage over global competitors. The company's shares have become the third-best performer in the S&P 500 since the conflict began, as nitrogen fertilisers like urea and ammonia underpin about half of global food production.

CF Industries faces a lawsuit from a US farming union alleging price collusion, which the company denies. Meanwhile, CVR Partners shares have risen 23% and LyondellBasell is up 26% since the conflict began. Morgan Stanley estimates 9% of global plastic flows have been disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz closure, with every $100 per metric ton rise in polyethylene prices translating to a $320 million profit boost for LyondellBasell.