Europe faces a familiar energy crisis as Middle East tensions drive oil prices up over 30% and natural gas benchmarks nearly double since conflict began. The déjà vu moment echoes 2022 when Russia's Ukraine invasion triggered similar price surges, forcing governments to implement costly support packages. UK and EU leaders now confront the same dilemma of protecting economies while managing energy import dependencies.

Unlike 2022, gas prices haven't spiked as dramatically yet, with oil briefly dipping below $100 a barrel. Europe has diversified away from Russian energy, but Oxford Economics warns inflation could rise 0.5 percentage points by year-end under even a short-lived price shock. Investors are betting on interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank and Bank of England, adding pressure on already strained public finances.

The political imperative for economic support is mounting. Britain's Labour government cites cost of living as its top priority, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer promising action to limit impacts. However, experts caution against repeating 2022's mistakes, urging targeted temporary measures for vulnerable households and businesses rather than broad subsidies that prove difficult to withdraw.