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EU Energy Crisis Triggers Return to 2022 Playbook Amid Oil Price Surge

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The EU’s six largest economies are pushing for a unified EU-level supervision of financial entities to centralize capital markets regulation, per a letter to the European Commission seen by the Financial Times. This move revives long-standing efforts to harmonize bloc-wide oversight. Meanwhile, the oil price has surged past $100 a barrel overnight, driven by renewed attacks on Gulf shipping that have rattled markets. The EU’s response to the Iran war-induced energy crisis mirrors 2022 measures, including a record 400 million-barrel IEA reserve release and potential gas price caps, as outlined by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. This reliance on familiar tools underscores limited options and Europe’s persistent dependence on imported fossil fuels despite reduced Russian gas reliance.

Europe’s current energy challenges stem from its shift from Russian gas to American and Qatari LNG, which avoids the 2022 supply crunch scale but leaves businesses and consumers facing elevated bills. Von der Leyen has ruled out overhauling the electricity market design—where gas often sets marginal prices—and dismissed calls to suspend the EU emissions trading system, reflecting constrained policy choices. Analysts warn that any state aid to offset energy costs will likely be on a smaller scale than 2022, given weaker economic growth. Spain’s higher renewable share has shown lower price volatility, highlighting the benefits of diversification.

In parallel, Ireland and the UK are finalizing a defense co-operation deal during Taoiseach Micheál Martin’s visit to Cork, addressing Ireland’s vulnerabilities in protecting vital subsea cables. Ireland’s limited naval capabilities—only four ships—and intelligence gaps necessitate closer ties with the UK and Nato allies, particularly as it assumes the EU presidency in July. This pragmatic partnership marks a warming in UK-EU relations despite Ireland’s longstanding neutrality.