European jet fuel imports are plummeting to 420,000 barrels a day this week, down 40% from last week and marking March's lowest level since 2022. The Iran war has choked off critical supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which previously delivered 40% of Europe's aviation fuel, forcing airlines into daily monitoring mode as physical shortages threaten within weeks.

Middle East shipments have largely ceased, with volumes falling about 90%. While jet fuel inventories remain at February levels, the pace of drawdowns could accelerate. The last remaining cargoes from the Gulf are expected to arrive by April 10-11, after which Europe's supply position becomes precarious despite alternative sources from west Africa and the US Gulf.

Airlines now face difficult decisions including carrying extra fuel for return trips, making tactical refueling stops, or potentially canceling flights. Carriers will prioritize the most lucrative routes while implementing backup operating plans, with the entire European region at risk of a supply crunch before the peak summer demand season.