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City Expectations for Burnham-Healey Government

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The writer, a chronicler of the City and Wall Street, recalls Denis Healey's 1974-79 chancellorship — a period of 16% inflation, an IMF bailout, and a property crash. Andy Burnham's apparent nostalgia for the pre-neoliberal era alarms City traditionalists who credit Margaret Thatcher with a golden quarter-century of growth. Yet Thatcher's critics argue deregulation led to short-termism and the 2008 crisis. The Burnham-Healey axis must avoid a 1970s rerun while retaining overseas investor confidence.

The UK Debt Management Office forecasts £246bn in gilt sales for 2026-27; a one-point yield rise adds £2.5bn to borrowing costs. Tax-and-spend decisions are urgent. Long-term reform — easing planning, reforming business rates, endorsing the industrial strategy — is essential but insufficient without reversing the 21st-century collapse in private investment.

The 2025 Mansion House Accord offers luck: 17 pension providers pledged 10% of workplace portfolios (£25bn) into productive UK assets by 2030. The government must clear administrative hurdles and maintain pressure. City and soft-left Labour need each other: get spending down, be sensible on tax, and the City will accept its share of tax rises, stop lobbying for further deregulation, and cease threats to relocate.