Shanghai and Shenzhen saw a spring uptick in listings, yet analysts see a deeper slide ahead. Seasonal boosts mask a broader decline, with second‑hand sales hitting pandemic‑low highs but prices set to fall further. The market’s fragile rebound hinges on investor sentiment and tighter mortgage rates.

The sector has shed roughly 100 trillion renminbi in value, eroding household wealth and dampening confidence. Even as A‑shares rally, the sustainability of gains remains uncertain. Buyers now favor older, cheaper homes, yet rent‑to‑price yields barely offset 3.5% mortgage costs.

Lower‑tier cities suffer longer, larger drops and shrinking populations, tightening the national outlook. Young consumers, once driven by ownership, now chase experiences, weakening the traditional demand engine. This shift signals a potential structural break in China’s real‑estate playbook.

Ultimately, without a decisive price collapse or rent surge, the housing market will struggle to regain momentum, leaving investors wary of long‑term returns.