The Iran conflict has thrust China and India into a rare opportunity to challenge Gulf mega-hubs like Dubai. Before the war, one-third of Asia-Europe travelers passed through Middle Eastern airports. Mainland China and India have long lagged behind Singapore and Hong Kong in creating global transit hubs due to regulations and weak anchor airlines. China Southern and other carriers are adding flights to Europe and Australasia, bypassing the Gulf. Shanghai is aggressively positioning itself as a transit hub with free rest areas for 1,000 travelers.

Bookings via mainland China rose 69% in Iran-war-affected weeks. Yet Gulf hubs maintain long-term dominance due to financial strength and aircraft supply constraints, with Iata head Willie Walsh predicting minimal structural change. China's over-Russia route offers cost advantages, but Indian airports still lack Gulf amenities.

The outcome remains uncertain as airlines test new routes while Gulf carriers cut fares.