Blue Owl Capital’s shares have tumbled roughly 40% this year, brushing an all‑time low after the firm capped redemptions on two private‑credit funds amid a flood of withdrawal requests. The plunge has turned the alternative‑asset manager into a barometer for stress in the $1.8 trillion private‑credit market, especially given its heavy exposure to software firms that could be disrupted by AI for the broader market.

Investors will focus on Thursday’s pre‑market earnings release, where analysts expect $316 billion in assets under management and $384 million in fee‑related earnings, both up year‑over‑year. Key themes include the firm’s ability to raise new capital, the persistence of redemption pressure on its retail‑focused BDCs, and credit quality of its software and data‑center loans and investor confidence.

Without any sell ratings, the stock draws 11 buy and five hold recommendations, yet analysts warn that softer fundraising and lingering redemption flows could drag quarterly performance. BofA’s Craig Siegenthaler anticipates a “relatively soft quarter” as leveraged‑loan spreads widen. Should the earnings beat expectations, the depressed valuation may present a selective buying chance for investors comfortable with stable credit exposure in the near term.