BHP Group has appointed internal candidate Brandon Craig as its next CEO, signaling a continued focus on organic growth over large-scale mergers. Craig, a 25-year company veteran, stated that developing existing projects is the primary goal, and any acquisition would need to be "very special" to compete. This stance contrasts with an industry where rivals like Rio Tinto have pursued deals to boost scale and resource portfolios.

The mining sector is under pressure to grow, with BHP and Rio Tinto both attempting to acquire Anglo American in recent years. These bids reflect a strategic pivot toward copper, vital for the energy transition and AI infrastructure, as companies seek to please investors concerned about stagnant valuations. Craig’s appointment underscores BHP’s bet that its own copper assets, like Escondida, offer the best path to expansion.

Craig’s background aligns with this strategy. As head of BHP’s Americas business, he oversaw a surge in copper output that, for the first time, contributed over half the group’s profit. He also manages the Jansen potash project in Canada. While experienced in joint ventures, he stressed "discipline" in dealmaking. A pressing issue is mending ties with China after a contract dispute halted some iron ore sales.

Analysts note that with copper’s price outlook favorable relative to iron ore, its contribution to BHP’s earnings appears inevitable. Craig’s immediate task involves engaging Chinese buyers before his July 1 start, while nurturing government relationships in the Americas for critical minerals. His engineering-driven approach prioritizes building assets over buying them.