Apollo Global Management's £5.7bn offer for easyJet carries an 80% premium to the airline's undisturbed share price, yet Lex calculates the bid would yield only a 6% internal rate of return on standalone forecasts — £7bn of EBITDA and £10bn of growth investment through 2030 — even with half the purchase financed by debt. Bernstein estimates a breakup could fetch £6-7bn (£8-9 per share) from planes, slots, order book and the holidays business, but Apollo has signaled support for easyJet's "growth path ahead" instead.

The operational challenge is stark: easyJet's 10% EBITDA margin last year sits at roughly half of Ryanair's and IAG's. The carrier employs 54 staff per aircraft versus 43 at Ryanair and 37 at Wizz Air, another private equity-backed rival. Closing that gap to a 20% margin by 2030 — still five percentage points below Ryanair's projected level — could add £10bn of enterprise value at Apollo's entry multiple.

Apollo's track case offers precedent: both Sun Country in the US and Aeroméxico have achieved profitability well above easyJet's current trajectory. Geopolitical shocks and fuel volatility remain wild cards, but the buyout may represent the airline's most credible route to the cost discipline and revenue intensity its public-market tenure has failed to deliver.