Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Cahillane acknowledges iconic brands but admits volumes have contracted in nine of the past 10 years. Industry-wide, Conagra Brands, General Mills, JM Smucker, PepsiCo, and Colgate-Palmolive report flat or falling US volumes. The S&P consumer staples sub-index gained just 14% since early 2023 while the S&P 500 nearly doubled.

The $1tn consumer packaged goods industry is squeezed by healthier insurgent brands and retailer private labels. Private-label share now exceeds 25% of US sales, up over one percentage point. Volume declines accelerated in 2026, falling 2% year-over-year since February as rising fuel prices from the Iran war hit budgets. Bain-tracked insurgent brands like Kodiak Cakes and Amylu Foods captured 36% of dollar growth despite tiny market share.

Cahillane is investing $700mn in legacy brands, including a Disney partnership putting Heinz ketchup and Philadelphia cream cheese in theme parks. Yet for lower-income shoppers, price rules: Kraft mac & cheese costs $1 at Walmart versus 64 cents for Great Value. Aldi's 90% own-label model and Gen Z's perception — two-thirds see private label as equal to national brands — fuel the shift.

A K-shaped consumer economy, media fragmentation, and retail concentration drive a fundamental reset. Excess contract manufacturing capacity enables retailers to duplicate branded innovations quickly. Some branded firms quietly supply private labels, such as Dole producing pesto ranch salad mix for Aldi at identical pricing.