Long-haul carriers face a potential $127bn bill through 2035 as carbon credit shortages threaten to spike offset prices nearly eightfold to $100 per tonne, according to MSCI Carbon Markets research. The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) requires airlines from 130 countries to purchase credits when emissions exceed 85% of 2019 levels.

Emirates could bear the steepest cost at $8bn over the scheme period—equivalent to 20% of its 2025 operating revenue—driven by its extensive long-haul network through Dubai. Qatar Airways and United Airlines face estimated costs of $6bn and $5bn respectively under high-demand scenarios, representing 26% and 8% of their annual revenues.

Supply constraints stem from limited eligible carbon reduction projects, including forest protection and regeneration programs. Airlines historically treated credits as stable, liquid inputs, but Ben Rattenbury of Sylvera notes the market now behaves differently. The crunch follows volatility in jet fuel pricing amid the US-Iran conflict.

Regulatory uncertainty complicates compliance. While China prepares to join in 2026, US participation remains unclear after the Trump administration rejected shipping emission taxes. Some carriers including United plan voluntary adherence, but the cost burden will inevitably flow to ticket prices.