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AI blurs tech sector lines, Citi warns credit exposure

Financial Times Companies •
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Bryce Elder argues the traditional “technology” label has become a catch‑all that no longer describes reality. In the Stoxx 600 supersector, consulting firms like Capgemini sit beside classifieds such as Auto Trader, media giant RELX and peripherals maker Logitech, while pure‑play game studios are excluded. AI’s vague definition is further eroding any taxonomic clarity.

Citi credit analyst Daniel Sorid estimates at least 40 % of investment‑grade debt now carries AI‑related revenue. US investment‑grade tech companies have issued $362 bn since August, pushing hyperscalers’ share of the tech IG universe to 40 % of face value, up from 28 %. Under the official taxonomy, tech now represents about 11.5 % of US investment‑grade issuance.

The spread analysis shows AI winners and losers: chip makers enjoy tighter spreads, while most other sectors see widening gaps, the widest dispersion since 1998. Citi warns that AI exposure now touches virtually every issuer in the Bloomberg US Corporate index, eroding the usefulness of diversification. Investors must treat AI risk as a portfolio‑wide factor.

With AI embedded across credit markets, rating agencies are revising models and investors are pricing higher spreads for non‑hardware firms. The surge in data‑centre and utility financing signals a potential over‑capacity risk if AI demand stalls. Market participants should monitor AI‑linked covenant terms as a new credit quality indicator.