When the United Arab Emirates exited OPEC, the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said the move was a display of confidence, not a snub to rivals such as Saudi Arabia. Three months later, ADNOC’s actions reveal a drive to maximise oil production, secure alternative routes after the Strait of Hormuz shut, and finish its evolution from a state‑owned giant into a global energy major.

The company has accelerated growth plans, investing tens of billions internationally. In 2024 it merged its petrochemicals arm with Austria’s OMV feedstock unit to create the $60bn‑valued Borouge Group International AG, and last year completed a $17bn acquisition of German polymer maker Covestro. A recent $1bn purchase of Shell’s South‑African fuel stations gives ADNOC a retail foothold in Africa’s largest economy. It also abandoned the plan to benchmark its flagship Murban crude, reverting to a Middle‑East basket.

Yet the risk of a price war with Saudi Arabia looms. If both nations lift output, prices could fall sharply, complicating new investments. ADNOC’s spokesperson says its strategy remains unchanged: “We have accelerated our growth plans in the UAE and internationally to meet growing demand.” The company’s next moves will be watched closely as it balances market share, profitability, and the long‑term health of the Gulf state.

With production already near 5mn b/d, ADNOC aims to hit its 2030 target earlier, boosting its reserves to strengthen future OPEC quotas.