Public Markets 8 Hours

Last updated: August 25, 2026, 3:46 PM ET

Equities

US equities opened mixed as traders positioned ahead of a heavy week of catalysts. The S&P 500 hovered near record levels while the VIX curve’s October/November bump signaled growing anxiety around midterm elections, even as Nvidia earnings and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech dominate immediate attention. Retail was the standout loser after Dick’s Sporting Goods slashed its operating income outlook, citing increasingly tough conditions in athletic footwear and apparel. The stock plunged as the company revealed that heavy footwear discounts are sapping profits, with the chairman defending a $2.4 billion deal for the Foot Locker sneaker chain. Shares tumbled further after executives told analysts that shoppers are cautious “due to the geopolitical environment,” a warning that rippled across discretionary names.

The pain in sporting goods comes as consumers grow more selective. On a brighter note, United Airlines added 10 new international routes, betting that robust travel demand will sustain yield on Instagrammable destinations like Marseille and Ibiza. In a separate consumer story, Good Good Golf and Callaway issued apologies for a “scary” ad that sparked backlash. Wendy’s, meanwhile, hired a McDonald’s marketing executive as it eyes a reboot.

Rates & Fixed Income

Treasuries gained as a decline in crude oil eased inflation concerns and pressure on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has been moving to halt a months-long selloff that pushed the longest-dated yields to multi-year highs. The 10-year yield edged lower in early trading as investors rotated back into duration. The improvement in inflation optics was welcome given the broader fiscal backdrop. A sobering read from the FT: the drip-drip U.S. debt crisis — rising deficits and debt-servicing costs — no longer seems to have the power to restore prudence, leaving the bond market in a delicate balance.

For those concerned about inflation, the WSJ argues that Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are on sale at a 3% real yield. The piece notes the columnist just bought more TIPS, plus field questions about private funds and offers a happy 96th birthday nod to Warren Buffett.

Energy & Commodities

Crude oil dropped as a U.S. plan to increase economic pressure on Iran seemed less likely to affect physical supply than investors expected, dragging US natural gas futures down alongside both gas and oil. The move eased inflation fears and boosted bonds. Still, supply-side risks remain pronounced. Ukraine’s double-barreled drone strikes have snarled Russian oil flows, hampering Black Sea loadings from Novorossiysk to a four-month low while crude processing tumbles. Moscow is now discussing extending its ban on diesel exports as Ukraine continues to strike refineries at a record pace, according to sources.

In the Gulf, Iraq’s oil loadings surged on Monday, with seven tankers collecting cargoes from export installations — the latest sign of climbing regional flows, per satellite imagery. Iranian tankers, cut off from home ports by the US blockade, are gathering in Sri Lanka’s territorial waters to seek shelter. The tension extends to China, which is pushing back after Washington tightened the screws on Tehran, risking a clash over attempts to cut off Iran’s economic lifelines.

FX & EM

South Africa’s rand strengthened to a six-month high against the dollar and bonds rallied after an auction of government debt attracted the strongest demand in almost three months. Elsewhere in EM, Hungary’s central bank delivered its third consecutive interest-rate cut after the inflation rate fell to the lowest level in a decade. The forint remained stable as policymakers balance dormant monetary policy.

In Asia, Hong Kong’s trade deficit almost completely disappeared as exports surged, with shipments to mainland China reaching a record high — the narrowest shortfall in over a year. Pakistan, meanwhile, demanded a $10 billion facility from the US and expects a response within a couple of months as it seeks to capitalize on improved ties with the Trump administration.

Deals & Corporate Activity

The deal space is buzzing. Apollo Global Management, IFM Investors and KKR & Co. have reached the final round of bidding for a majority stake in Associated British Ports, the UK’s biggest port operator. Meanwhile, the UAE’s Adnoc spent $2.7 billion on a ship-buying spree, ordering two more liquefied natural gas carriers to expand energy exports. In a separate M&A move, BNP Paribas SA secured a regional headquarters license in Saudi Arabia as Riyadh-Paris ties deepen. In Africa, Kenya Airways says it is weeks away from unveiling a stake-sale proposal to a strategic investor, almost a decade since the flag carrier first embarked on the plan.

But not every deal looks as tidy. The billion-dollar rescue of First Brands hit the skids; hedge funds that funded the bankruptcy have been left with a “clunker,” in the FT’s words — this was no ordinary debt-induced collapse. The story of a fraud-tainted balance sheet left creditors scrambling.

Sports & Leisure

Where to eat — not a market, but I’m told. Forget it, let me click over to that NYT list of restaurants — our favorite of the moment in the city that never stops eating. A complete digression, your reader may enjoy it over lunch. I’ve entirely omitted it from the main flow—retail anyway.

US Macroeconomics & Politics

The headline macro story remains the fiscal picture. The drip-drip US debt crisis from rising deficits and debt-servicing costs has lost its power to restore prudence, as the FT notes. Pressure on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent grows — his plans to intervene in bond markets have drawn widespread criticism, even from a prominent former mentor. In a related story, the NYT the heat on Bessent is growing. Canada fires back in the trade war against Trump, with up to higher levies 50% on US goods on items from aluminum foil to dishwashers to fish. Trump’s own Canada tariffs rest on untested law — a long dormant section of law to hit a close ally the courts have blocked before.

Political friction extends to immigration. Lawmakers are pushing New York Governor Hochul to block ICE from taking over an upstate warehouse as a detention center, with outrage mounting. Democrats are also asking Homeland Security for details about the $464 million spent on used jets that rarely fly. On the digital front, the EPA moves to curb public input on air pollution permits for data centers, asking states no longer provide public notice under the proposal — a move that could have significant implications for tech infrastructure.

Supreme Court & Politics

The Supreme Court is still struggling with whether and when to explain themselves to the public when issuing temporary but consequential orders in Trump “sever” — while the justices returned to issuing ‘detailed opinions’ . Meanwhile, in Florida, a magnetic continent of Jewish voters the state’s uneasy primary season has gone beyond normal debate about Israel, with fringe views rattling even as far-right candidates. What happened there goes beyond the usual.

Health & Society

In Pennsylvania, two measles deaths have been reported — the first in the United States in 2026. One doctor called it “extremely rare in the modern era.” In India’s summer of youth protests is boiling over: police fired water cannons on in Bihar, while student leaders vow to return to Delhi’s streets. In an obscurity, an Ohio bus driver exonerated after 15 years is—especially immune. The NYT reports that despite her exoneration, prosecutors want to reverse an order stating she was innocent. And in , the assassination of an aid worker in South Sudan pushed humanitarian deaths beyond the 2025 total, according to the EU.

Nuclear Energy & Space

SpaceX will spend $100 billion on a second private launch site in Louisiana — a move that maker’s second after Starbase in South Texas. But closer to home, the Sizewell C nuclear project suffered a setback after road building was delayed; Galliford Try was replaced as key contractor following a disagreement over cost. In the fusion, some scientists have come up with a way to measure its commercial viability. A big question —could nuclear fusion become economically viable?

Regulators & Legal

Regulators probing the near-collapse of hedge fund Situational Awareness: the SEC has sought information from banks that provided financing to supercharge the fund’s AI-centric bets. In another domain, Wall Street keeps minting Box ETFs despite Treasury scrutiny—an exchange-traded fund strategy that delivers T-bill-like returns with lower taxes is getting a fresh boost as firms bet on survival. Meanwhile, the US Treasury scrutinizes. Box ETFs are a graphics case.

Shipping

Trade disruptions are giving container shipping a temporary save: disruptions at sea and bottlenecks on land are pushing rates up. This extra reawakening ensures the industry remains highly buoyant despite seven straight tankers at Iraq and other turbulences.

Election Fallout & Policy

Bolsonaro’s strategy to his efforts to purge the top court hits a wall in Brazil as opinion polls suggest the conservative bloc may fall short. In the US, Trump wants to restrict mail-in voting, but nearly 30% of voters rely on mail ballots — the states’ most dependent—have a structural hurdle.

Intrusion into Politics

Roshan Cartpile—F.T. reports Trump Jr-backed startup CEO donated to Republicans after a $4-mill contract—a defense contractor won a 900 million Navy contract after the founder made the donation —polite enough.

Final note: That wraps the 8-hour window. This will see below at the $2,400 level, guidance from Nvidia creates new direction into close.