Public Markets 8 Hours

Last updated: March 25, 2026, 11:30 PM ET

Geopolitical Tensions & Commodity Markets

Crude oil prices remained volatile as conflicting reports regarding US-Iran ceasefire talks kept markets on edge, with oil futures edging higher despite some optimism. Tehran’s parliament is advancing a draft bill to impose security tolls for transiting the Strait of Hormuz while laying out its own terms, adding pressure that caused copper and other base metals to fall 1.3%. The persistent Middle East conflict is driving inflation risks globally, causing Thailand’s government to slash fuel subsidies, which resulted in motorists facing the steepest price increases in decades. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea flagged financial stability risks stemming from escalating regional tensions, though it maintained the system was broadly sound in March.

Global Inflation & Economic Outlook

The long-term inflation outlook appears grim, as spending related to artificial intelligence buildouts and the global energy transition is projected to cause inflationary pressures for decades, according to the chief executive of IFM Global Infrastructure. This long-term inflation concern contrasts with current administration messaging, as some corporate executives privately express frustration with optimistic statements regarding energy shocks. In Asia, the combination of elevated oil prices—priced in US dollars—and war-related uncertainty is crushing regional currencies from India to South Korea, while Indonesia’s local credit market is straining under the weight of higher oil-driven inflation and capital outflows threatening stability.

Fixed Income & Central Bank Policy

In Japan, expectations for a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike pushed the two-year government bond yield to its highest level since 1996, reflecting tightening sentiment even as Japanese stock investors hedge against further downside due to the ongoing war. Across the Pacific, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is estimated to require more than one term to achieve his goal of significantly shrinking the central bank’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet. Adding to credit market concerns, a New York Fed index indicated that the US corporate bond market experienced greater dislocation in March, with the high-grade segment showing more strain than high-yield debt.

Private Markets & Corporate Finance

Firms in the private credit space are attempting to quell investor nervousness, as Blackstone and Apollo brushed off fears suggesting perceived risks in the $1.8 trillion sector do not match market realities, despite Ares Management Corp. reporting its steepest monthly loss on record for one of its funds in February. In technology, shares of memory and storage producers slumped temporarily after researchers at Google touted a new compression technique, though analysts suggest this may only be a short-term dip rather than an existential threat to demand. Separately, SpaceX is planning a massive IPO, aiming to raise $75 billion based on a proposed $1.75 trillion valuation, positioning itself among the highest-valued private entities.

M&A and Sectoral Shifts

Henkel AG is nearing a deal to acquire the cult hair-care brand Olaplex Holdings Inc., as consumer goods giants continue to consolidate high-growth lifestyle brands. In the materials space, Rio Tinto Group has closed its final diamond mine, ending its half-century involvement in the precious gemstone business. Meanwhile, Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. will collaborate with South Korea’s LS Cable & System Ltd. to explore developing a new rare earths metals production facility in Vietnam to secure supply chains.