Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 13, 2026, 10:30 PM ET
Energy & Commodities Surge on War Fears
Brent crude surged above $100 for a second consecutive session, settling at a more than three-year high as the Middle East conflict drags on. This volatility whipsawed oil trading desks, with one trader describing being awakened by a buzzing phone as Brent futures moved 1% in minutes. The price spike is driven by hedge funds turning their most bullish on oil since 2020, piling into long positions as supply fears mount. The conflict is now disrupting global trade far beyond the region, snarling supply chains. Fuel shortages threaten global food supply, with farmers in Asia and Europe facing scarcity of diesel needed for planting and harvesting. In response, the Trump administration authorized Venezuela to sell fertilizers to U.S. companies to offset the crunch. Major producers are pulling back; TotalEnergies is shutting production in Qatar, Iraq, and the UAE, representing about 15% of its output. Meanwhile, a new generation of investors is trading 24/7 oil futures, rejecting traditional market hours. President Trump’s claim that the U.S. has “obliterated” military assets on Iran’s Kharg Island and his vow to block Iran from shutting the Strait of Hormuz keep geopolitical risk premiums elevated, though he softened his call for Iranians to protest.
Policy Moves and Geopolitical Deal-Making
The Trump administration is pursuing aggressive deal-making and policy shifts with major market implications. The White House is set to receive a $10 billion fee for brokering a TikTok divestiture, with investors agreeing to several multibillion-dollar government payments. Separately, President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is soliciting $5 billion or more from foreign governments for his private equity firm while serving as a Mideast envoy, raising ethical concerns. In trade policy, the U.S. is loosening sanctions on Venezuela to secure fertilizers, directly countering the supply crunch from the Iran war. A federal judge blocked the administration’s demand for student race data from universities, deriding the Justice Department’s case as potentially motivated by “vengeance.” On housing, Trump signed executive orders targeting affordability, part of a voter outreach strategy.
Credit Markets: Opportunities and Defiance
Corporate credit is seeing a shift in sentiment and high-stakes battles. TD Securities declared corporate bonds cheap enough to buy, urging investors to take on more risk. This comes as Oaktree Capital’s Danielle Poli warned that the moment for distressed debt buying isn’t here yet, citing resilient global credit markets. The London Stock Exchange Group is planning a massive $3 billion bond sale of high-grade U.S. corporates as soon as next week. In a major shareholder conflict, a Blue Owl fund urged rejection of Boaz Weinstein’s Saba Capital offer, calling the bid price too low, setting up a showdown in the private credit space.
Technology and AI Fronts
The AI hardware race intensifies as Nvidia prepares an ‘inference’ chip launch at its GTC event next week, countering challengers as spending shifts from training to running models. In a major legal setback for Elon Musk, a California judge questioned the “numbers out of the air” underpinning his $134 billion claim against OpenAI but allowed the testimony to proceed to an April trial. The hottest new crypto trade is 24/7 oil futures, illustrating the blurring lines between traditional commodities and digital asset markets.
Consumer and Retail Winners
Amid economic crosscurrents, Dick’s Sporting Goods dominates the $40 billion youth sports market, capturing unprecedented spending from parents on equipment and travel. The company’s strategy of exclusive partnerships and store-within-a-store concepts has made it the singular winner as youth sports participation and costs soar. This contrasts with broader consumer pressures from rising fuel and food costs tied to the Middle East conflict.