Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 13, 2026, 1:30 AM ET
Energy & Geopolitics
The Iran war sent shockwaves through global energy markets as oil prices surged 10% on Thursday before easing slightly in Asian trade, with Brent crude hovering near $100 amid escalating Strait of Hormuz threats. Malaysia's subsidy bill will increase substantially due to higher oil prices, Second Finance Minister Amir Hamzah Azizan warned, while the Philippines seeks to review its 30-year-old oil liberalization law to better control fuel costs. The UAE cut crude shipments by 20% to onshore partners, redirecting flows to Fujairah port outside the Strait of Hormuz. Germany's industrial sector faces renewed pressure as energy costs threaten viability, with manufacturers warning four years after Russia's Ukraine invasion that the Iran conflict poses another major challenge to European factory revival.
Currency & Fixed Income
The yen weakened to July 2024 lows as Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher, while Singapore's dollar consolidated amid position adjustments. Treasury volatility jumped to nine-month highs as the Iran war fanned inflation concerns and upended Fed policy expectations. Iron ore headed for biggest weekly gain in over a year after China's state-backed buyer expanded restrictions on BHP Group products. Australia's pension system, now at A$4.5 trillion ($3.2 , remains the world's fourth-largest and fastest-growing major market, with Rest Super seeking more US private assets ahead of New York meetings.
Asia Markets & Technology
China's consumer spending posted worst start outside pandemic, highlighting challenges to government efforts to boost domestic demand. Tencent and Alibaba earnings loom as OpenAI mania spreads through Chinese markets, with a top-performing emerging markets fund increasing exposure to Chinese AI hyperscalers, betting they offer better value than US tech giants. Short sellers reaped $1.8 billion from Xiaomi as surging memory prices and weakening EV sales clouded the company's earnings outlook. Coal India shares rose to 16-month highs amid gas shortages and harsh summer forecasts boosting power utility demand.
Corporate & IPO Markets
Hong Kong proposed lowering thresholds for dual-class share listings to revive its status as a premier IPO destination. SoftBank-backed Pay Pay kept dual listing option open after its $880 million New York trading debut. Blackstone arranged $1.2 billion credit facility for Air Trunk's Japanese data center expansion, part of private equity's push into AI infrastructure across Asia-Pacific. Brookfield seeks $800 million loan for World Freight's leveraged buyout, while Regal Partners suffered 93% crash in Australian biotech stock Immutep, which wiped out A$582 million in market value.
Geopolitical Developments
The Iran conflict threatens global food and energy supplies, roiling shipping and airfreight while complicating Trump's calculations on ending the war. Tehran's leaders play diplomatic hardball as Arabs hope to spark talks, while a weakened Iran strangles the Strait of Hormuz, threatening 20% of global oil flows. Trump removed sanctions on Russia to help oil flow amid the Iran conflict, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling the move "unfortunate but necessary" for the short term. A US KC-135 refueling plane crashed over western Iraq after an incident involving another aircraft during the American military campaign against Iran.
Economic Policy & Labor
The Philippines braces for labor market pain as Middle East conflict threatens overseas workers after joblessness surged to nearly four-year highs. New York City's proposed $30 minimum wage rattles small businesses following a wave of municipal pay hikes. Florida Republicans passed proof-of-citizenship voting bill modeled on Trump's top legislative priority. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney announced billions for military upgrades in the far north after White House complaints about vulnerabilities in the region.
Investment Strategy
Investors hunt for hedges as the Iran war shatters decades-old strategies, with basic assumptions underpinning hedging approaches coming undone. The Pentagon's AI dealmaker Emil Michael becomes Anthropic's nemesis in the fight over military AI use. Australia's economic recovery likely lost momentum in late 2025 before any impact from the Middle East conflict, highlighting its fragile nature even as surging oil prices add new pressure.