Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 12, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Energy & Commodities
Brent crude settled above $100 a barrel for the first time since August 2022 as millions of barrels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, marking the biggest oil market disruption in history. U.S. residential heating oil prices surged above $5 a gallon, the highest since November 2022, as the war in Iran strains global diesel and crude flows critical for home heating. Russia rakes in $150 million daily in extra revenue from surging oil prices, with tankers carrying Russian oil heading to India as the Middle East conflict boosts Vladimir Putin's war chest. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed according to Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who struck a defiant tone and signaled Iran would not back down in a war spreading across the Middle East. Analysts now forecast longer-lasting upheaval in crude markets, with oil drillers in central California resorting to trucking crude barrels 50 miles after a key pipeline was idled.
Financial Markets
U.S. mortgage rates climbed to 6.8% as new inflation concerns roiled financial markets, undercutting recent affordability gains after briefly dipping below 6% just weeks ago. The Federal Reserve and other regulators plan to ease capital requirements for big banks, with Wall Street cheering proposals that would water down protections designed to avoid a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, the CFTC issued guidance on manipulation in prediction markets, asking exchanges to engage with regulators before opening certain markets vulnerable to manipulation. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright took "full ownership" for an erroneous social media post that rattled traders and sent oil prices reeling after wrongly suggesting the U.S. Navy had escorted tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
Private Credit & Asset Management
Investors requested cash outs of 14% of Cliffwater's $33 billion fund while Morgan Stanley capped withdrawals from one of its private credit funds, signaling mounting stress in the $1.6 trillion private credit market. Tikehau's Mayer-Lévi described the market as "too noisy", comparing current turmoil to getting stuck at an unwanted event. The ECB's Villeroy sounded warnings on private credit liquidity risks, noting that the rise of semi-liquid vehicles meant to attract retail investors could pose risks to fund managers as high-profile names like Blue Owl Capital, Blackstone, and BlackRock have received redemption requests. Private credit funds are now bracing for battles with their go-to lenders—major banks—amid an unprecedented investor exodus and defaulting borrowers.
Geopolitical & Trade
Brazil's government cut fuel taxes to offset oil price surges as the Iran war rages on, while introducing a levy on crude oil exports to offset the impact on consumers. Colombia's presidential candidate Paloma Valencia appointed Juan Daniel Oviedo as her running mate, a former head of the national statistics agency. Colombia's top fertilizer plant cut ammonia output as natural gas prices surged, another sign that the Middle East conflict is hitting European industry. The U.S. is expected to begin a trade investigation into whether dozens of countries have policies to combat forced labor, as the Trump administration targets forced labor in its global tariff scheme.
Corporate & IPO Activity
Jennifer Garner's organic kids snacks maker Once Upon a Farm shares fell 9.8% after forecasting slowing sales growth in 2026 in its first earnings report as a public company. Lucid plans to launch three new models, including two SUVs called Cosmos and Earth, with a third consumer model yet to be unveiled as the EV maker expands its midsize platform. Amazon seized a brief window for a $54 billion global bond sale as the war in Iran intensified, with banks settling on a clear sales pitch: the company is a safe bet in an increasingly unpredictable world. S&P Dow Jones Indices is considering rule changes that would potentially fast-track SpaceX's entry into the S&P 500 Index after its IPO.
Technology & AI
Anthropic and Microsoft struck an alliance on agents, though the tussle over the future of AI technology will only intensify. Tesla received UK electricity supply licence, threatening further disruption to the retail energy sector after a decade of upheaval. The scope of scientific inquiry is contracting as research focuses on data-rich problems, according to a Financial Times analysis of science and AI trends.
Real Estate & Construction
Lennar's first-quarter sales fell 13% as a tough housing market resulted in lower average home sale prices, with revenue declining amid persistent market challenges. Hilton Head Island seeks $35 million bonds to fund a new headquarters for firefighters, tapping the municipal bond market as the historic island off South Carolina known for its golfing and 12-mile beachfront moves forward with the project.
Retail & Consumer
Ulta Beauty expects growth to slow this fiscal year as consumers focus on value, forecasting sales growth of 6% to 7% compared with a 9.7% increase in the prior fiscal year. Some jewelers are turning to alternative materials like wood, steel, and platinum as gold and silver prices soar, while others lean into volatility with bigger and bolder designs.
Regional Markets
Brazil's top soy exporter failed inspections, raising concerns about potential disruptions at a crucial time for trade with China. Colombia's presidential hopeful named her running mate, while Chile's new right-wing president José Antonio Kast inaugurated, marking the latest milestone in a broader shift toward conservatism and pro-Trump alignment in the region. Institutional investors are buying U.S. dollars at the strongest level in nearly two years as Middle East conflict drives demand for safe-haven assets, according to State Street.