Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 12, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
Energy & Commodities
Brent crude surged above $100 a barrel for the first time since August 2022 as millions of barrels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, marking the biggest oil market disruption in history. The crisis deepened as Iran likely began laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to UK ministers, while oil tankers are trapped as "sitting ducks" with attacks widening. The supply strain forced California oil drillers to resort to costly trucking after a pipeline idled, and sent US heating oil above $5 a gallon, the highest since late 2022. In Europe, Equinor sees little capacity to boost gas output to offset the war-driven shortfall, even as Slovakia’s top fertilizer plant cuts ammonia output following natural gas price spikes. The conflict is already straining global fertilizer markets, lifting US producer shares, while Russia rakes in $150 million daily in extra revenue from surging prices.
Corporate Earnings & Strategic Shifts
Ulta Beauty forecast slowing growth to 6-7% this fiscal year from 9.7%, signaling pressure in the cosmetics sector. Similarly, Once Upon a Farm shares fell 9.8% after its IPO as the organic snack maker projected slowing sales growth for 2026. In tech, Adobe reported higher sales but announced CEO Shantanu Narayen will step down after an 18-year tenure, launching a search for an AI-era leader. The electric vehicle sector saw Rivian pricing its more-affordable model at $57,990 for a 2027 debut, while Lucid plans three new models including a robotaxi. Stellantis is exploring deals with Chinese automakers to shore up its struggling European operations. Meanwhile, Amazon seized a brief window to sell $54 billion in global bonds, marketing itself as a safe bet amid rising unpredictability.
Regulatory & Political Developments
Banking regulators plan to ease capital requirements in proposals due next week, a move cheered by Wall Street that would water down post-2008 protections. The Federal Reserve’s top bank supervisor confirmed the Fed will unveil new capital rules in the coming week. In trade policy, the Trump administration is preparing a forced labor investigation targeting dozens of countries, a potential precursor to new tariffs. The S&P is weighing rule changes that could fast-track SpaceX’s index entry after its IPO. In the UK, the government faces backlash over a "bungled" policy that will restrict crypto investments to niche accounts from next month. Tether’s chief investment officer is stepping down after a deals spree spanning soccer clubs to robotics.
Market Reactions & Financial Flows
State Street reported the strongest dollar buying in nearly two years as Middle East conflict drives safe-haven demand. Bond traders no longer fully price in a Fed rate cut this year as rising oil prices stoke inflation expectations. Bank and asset manager shares fell after Morgan Stanley limited withdrawals from a private credit fund, highlighting liquidity strains. Commodities hedge funds reaped gains from volatility sparked by the Iran war. Wall Street’s “buffer” ETFs are facing a test as bonds fail to cushion stock losses during the turmoil. S&P Global said AI’s impact on software won’t trigger sector-wide downgrades, offering some credit stability. Leon Cooperman warned markets are overpriced relative to profits given geopolitical risks, while Orient Overseas cited Middle East uncertainty after earnings sank.