Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 12, 2026, 1:30 AM ET
Energy & Commodities
Oil pushed above $100 a barrel as attacks on tankers and escalating rhetoric over the Iran war overshadowed a coordinated global release of strategic reserves. The supply disruption deepened after two tankers were struck in Iraqi waters, prompting that nation’s oil terminals to suspend operations, while Oman evacuated vessels from its key Mina Al Fahal export terminal as a precaution. Despite the International Energy Agency’s plan to release 400 million barrels—with the U.S. contributing 172 million—traders assessed that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed for months, a scenario Morgan Stanley warned would make LNG supply disruptions a bigger concern for certain Asian economies than oil. China’s move to tighten fuel export curbs by having refiners cancel gasoline and diesel cargoes further tightened global product markets, even as the worldwide reserve release could take months to reach buyers.
Asian Markets & Currencies
Asian stocks looked set to open lower as the prolonged Middle East conflict fueled volatility and pushed the Singapore dollar to weaken against the U.S. dollar. The yen hovered near its year-low against the dollar, with strategists seeing a higher threshold for Japanese intervention this time. Hedge funds, meanwhile, ramped up bullish bets on the Australian dollar via call options ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming decision, while Indian firms from FMCG to airlines are bracing for a rupee slide to 94–95 per dollar. The regional banking sector is pausing its Gulf lending drive as private conversations at a major loan association meeting focused on mounting war risks, even as Japan’s largest life insurers remain committed to increasing private credit investment in the new fiscal year despite sector warning signals.
Private Credit Stress
The turmoil in leveraged finance intensified as Morgan Stanley capped redemptions on one of its private credit funds, returning less than half the capital investors sought to withdraw. This follows broader redemption pressure roller coaster in the sector and comes as JPMorgan strategists noted hedge funds are suffering their biggest drawdown since April, punished by unwinds in crowded trades. The stress contrasts with the stance of Japan’s major insurers, who are proceeding with plans to boost private credit allocations even as market red flags multiply.
Equity Issuance & Corporate Deals
Singapore’s public markets saw a landmark debut as UI Boustead REIT began trading following the city-state’s biggest IPO this year, raising about S$973.6 million ($764 . In technology, Uber Technologies, Nissan Motor and U.K. startup Wayve teamed up to launch a robotaxi pilot in Tokyo by late 2026. The deal follows a U.S. court ruling that allowed Amazon to block outside AI bots from its site, kicking AI shopping wars into higher gear. Meanwhile, Allianz SE and Sun Life Financial are considering bids for HSBC’s insurance unit in Singapore, part of a strategic review by the banking giant.
Geopolitical & Policy Overhang
The escalating conflict continued to reverberate through policy and supply chains. Israel’s bombardment of Beirut added to regional instability, while a U.S. trade probe launched into China and EU set the stage for new tariffs under President Trump’s revival of protectionist measures. Domestically, Washington state’s passage of a “millionaires’ tax”—the state’s first income tax—is prompting some wealthy residents to relocate, potentially affecting long-term capital flows. The administration’s rapid pivot from opposing to orchestrating the emergency oil release highlighted the war’s immediate political and economic pressures.
Market Sentiment & Commodities
Gold edged lower after hotter U.S. inflation data reduced expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, a dynamic complicated by the war’s inflationary impulses. Silver’s price outlook turned bullish, with BMI projecting an average of around $93/ounce this year—more than double current levels—as industrial demand for the metal in AI and renewables grows. The conflict’s impact on UK housing sentiment darkened, with a survey showing surging energy prices now delaying expected interest rate cuts and weighing on property market prospects.