Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Energy & Commodities
Oil futures dropped 1.3% in early Asian trade as President Trump signaled the Iran conflict could end soon, with Brent crude falling below $70/barrel for the first time in a week. The selloff extended across metals, with aluminum retreating from four-year highs as Middle East supply concerns eased. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices plunged after Trump's comments, falling 8.2% to €35/MWh as traders priced in reduced conflict duration. The Middle East supply disruption has already shaved approximately 6% off global oil production, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining near-standstill.
Financial Markets
European equities rallied sharply with the FTSE 100 poised for a 1.8% gain as oil prices cooled, while the euro strengthened to a one-week high against the dollar. Asian markets showed mixed resilience, with Taiwanese and South Korean retail investors largely holding leveraged positions despite the Iran war selloff. The yuan advanced after the PBOC strengthened its fixing by the most since January, while credit risk in Asia eased by the most since June as Trump's comments reduced geopolitical uncertainty.
Corporate & M&A
Saudi Aramco raised its quarterly dividend and announced a $3 billion share buyback despite weaker oil prices, while Spanish energy company Repsol plans to return $4.19 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks by 2028. In India, Quest Global Services has begun discussions with banks for a potential $1 billion IPO in Mumbai, backed by Carlyle Group. Meanwhile, Yann LeCun's AI startup raised over $1 billion in Europe's largest seed round, with backing from Nvidia, Temasek, and Jeff Bezos.
Real Estate & Construction
Berkeley Group faces mounting challenges in London homebuilding as tax and regulatory obstacles mount, while the Iran conflict has disrupted real estate's anticipated recovery five years after the Ukraine invasion. In the UK, five water companies received permission to raise bills by 2.2% on top of a previously approved 24% average increase, as infrastructure investment pressures mount.
Technology & AI
China's enthusiasm for the open-source AI program Open Claw is driving a stock rally, with Tencent and Zhipu shares jumping as local firms rapidly embrace the technology. The yield curve in China steepened to its steepest level in four years amid oil price volatility, while Amazon reported a "trend of incidents" linked to generative AI-assisted changes, prompting an engineering meeting to address system reliability.
Geopolitics & Trade
India's State Bank of India refuses to process Russian oil payments despite a US waiver, citing uncertainty over sanction duration. India has also invoked emergency powers to redirect LPG supplies from industrial users to households, shielding consumers from Middle East conflict impacts. Meanwhile, Swiss arms exports jumped to near-record levels as European defense spending booms, rebounding from strict export rule concerns.
Aviation & Transportation
Jet Blue faced a brief ground stop after a system outage, though operations have since resumed. Air Asia X suffers as worst-performing airline stock after management's decision not to hedge jet fuel costs backfired when oil prices spiked following the Iran conflict. Indian airlines, including SpiceJet's chairman warning, may need to rethink expansion plans as crude oil prices at $90/barrel are deemed "unsustainable."
Defense & Security
Swiss arms shipments abroad reached near-record levels last year as European defense spending boomed. The US is leaving Iran's Kharg Island untouched, a crucial export hub, potentially signaling longer-term strategy toward Iran. Meanwhile, clusters of ships appeared near the Strait of Hormuz, indicating elevated electronic interference around the waterway central to US-Israeli operations against Iran.
Consumer & Retail
Lego reported 16% consumer sales growth in 2025, outpacing both the 7% global toy market expansion and some competitors. Lindt & Sprüngli shares fell 6.9% in early European trading after the chocolatier lowered guidance due to geopolitical unrest, with Barclays uncertain about the extent Middle East tensions factored into the revision. UK retail sales remained flat in February, with any near-term recovery unlikely due to Middle East conflict knock-on effects.
Banking & Finance
Kotak Mahindra Bank is open to acquisitions as billionaire-backed lender seeks to deploy excess capital amid India's financial industry transformation. In Singapore, Standard Chartered plans to double its number of bankers serving wealthy Chinese clients despite increased scrutiny following high-profile money-laundering scandals. India's telecom regulator cut spectrum prices as operator interest dried up amid market consolidation.