Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Oil Markets & Energy
Oil prices fell below $90 after Trump suggested the Iran conflict could end soon, though algorithmic traders maxed out on bullish US oil bets for the first time since 2021. Crude oil prices surged to near $100 a barrel, inflicting pain on motorists worldwide with the highest weekly jump in US average gas prices since Russia's Ukraine invasion. The G7 finance ministers said they would consider releasing oil from reserves but weren't ready to act yet, while the US told its partners that Russia sanctions relief would be temporary amid the Iran war. Citadel Securities sees markets mispricing Fed and ECB rate paths, arguing the oil-price surge makes policy divergence unlikely.
Market Volatility & Risk
Wall Street tail-risk hedges rallied as conflict shakes markets, with months of losing strategies suddenly paying off amid Iran war uncertainty. US airline bonds weakened as Mideast war lifted jet fuel costs, stirring investor fears about lower earnings and potential credit downgrades. AMC Entertainment turned to an existing creditor to refinance debt after turbulence in public markets derailed a planned bond and loan sale, though the deal includes incentives to bring the company back to market within a year. FedEx eclipsed UPS as the largest US parcel carrier by market value for the first time, a landmark moment underscoring the couriers' diverging paths in volatile markets.
IPO & Capital Markets
Madison Air Solutions filed for an IPO as a provider of ventilation and filtration systems. Air New Zealand suspended its earnings guidance as wildly fluctuating jet fuel prices made recent assumptions invalid. BRK Ambiental Participações is considering delaying its IPO debut as market conditions grow more challenging. Beaten-down IPOs face a "negative feedback loop" after lock-ups expire, with the worst performers in the 2025 class staring down selling pressure from long-term investors and management teams.
Tech & Innovation
Tokenized stocks are coming to major US exchanges, with plans to offer digital tokens that mimic shares and trade 24/7. HPE sales rose on networking growth despite cloud and AI decline, with networking revenue nearly tripling to $2.7 billion driven by a fivefold increase in data center networking revenue. Strategy Inc. accelerated its Bitcoin buying with a nearly $1.3 billion purchase, the biggest in seven weeks, leaning again on common stock despite earlier pledges to pivot to preferred shares. Goldman Sachs is pitching hedge funds on strategies to bet against corporate loans as AI advances upend the software industry.
Corporate Moves & Deals
Chicago is testing the municipal bond market with an $800 million bond sale as war in the Middle East upends global markets. JPMorgan Chase turned bullish on US investment-grade bonds, now expecting spreads to tighten by 12 basis points after previously projecting widening. Colombia's Petrobras is holding off on retail fuel price increases despite the war-driven surge in global oil markets. Venezuela oil shipments were booked for China as US sanctions ease, with a company backed by US energy magnate Harry Sargeant III moving to export Venezuelan crude to Asia.
Geopolitical & Policy
France is sending a large naval force to the Middle East to help protect allies and French citizens, potentially joining escort operations through the Strait of Hormus. The US told G-7 that Russian sanctions waivers would be limited as it reacts to spiking energy prices amid the Iran war. Italy's Giorgetti cautioned against raising ECB rates in response to Middle East conflict fallout. Mexico trade consultations favor tweaking USMCA over major revamps, with the free trade deal needing improvement rather than renegotiation.