Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Energy Markets Turmoil
US oil prices erased gains in after-hours trading after President Trump told CBS the Iran war is "very complete, pretty much." Crude oil surged to near $100 a barrel, inflicting pain on motorists worldwide with the highest weekly jump in US average gas prices since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Trend riders maxed out on bullish US oil bets for the first time since 2021, while Putin urged Russian oil and gas firms to use high prices to cut debt. Petrobras held the line on Brazil fuel prices despite the war-driven surge in global oil markets.
Airline Industry Pressure
US airline bonds weakened on Monday as soaring jet fuel costs stirred investor fears about lower earnings and potential credit rating downgrades. Air New Zealand suspended its earnings guidance as wildly fluctuating jet fuel prices made assumptions from less than two weeks ago invalid. The G-7 said it would consider releasing oil from reserves but was not ready to act immediately, while France said the group is "not there yet" on organizing a global release of emergency oil inventories.
Market Volatility and Risk
Wall Street tail-risk hedges rallied as conflict shakes markets, with investors loading up on protection after months of strategies losing money. Citadel Securities sees markets mispricing Fed and ECB rate paths, arguing the oil-price surge makes current policy divergence bets wrong. Investors reversed bets on central bank rate cuts as the Iran war deepens, expected to derail easing plans after policymakers learned from inflation caused by Russia's Ukraine invasion.
Corporate Moves and IPOs
Vail Resorts cut guidance after low snowfall deters skiers, now expecting net income of $144 million to $190 million versus its initial forecast of $201 million to $276 million. HPE sales rose on networking growth despite cloud and AI decline, with networking sales nearly tripling to $2.7 billion. FedEx topped UPS in market value, becoming the biggest US parcel firm for the first time. BRK Ambiental may delay its Brazil IPO as market conditions grow more challenging, marking the first potential IPO in five years at risk.
Digital Assets and Innovation
Strategy Inc. accelerated Bitcoin buying with a nearly $1.3 billion purchase, the biggest in seven weeks, leaning again on common stock despite earlier pledges to pivot to preferred shares. Tokenized stocks are coming to a market near you, with big US exchanges working on plans to offer digital tokens that mimic shares and trade 24/7. Darktrace named its third chief in 18 months amid US expansion drive, hiring Ed Jennings as private equity owners push for faster growth.
Regulatory and Legal Developments
The F.D.A. opened the door to more flavored e-cigarettes, proposing to allow other tastes for vapes like mint, coffees, spices, or tea to appeal to adults. Anthropic sued the US Defense Department and Pete Hegseth for targeting the company, alleging retaliation for a policy disagreement. Live Nation settled a US monopoly case over ticket sales, with the Justice Department alleging the company illegally dominates the market and uses "exclusionary conduct" to control venues.
International Developments
Venezuela booked an oil shipment for China as US sanctions ease, with a company backed by US energy magnate Harry Sargeant III moving to export Venezuelan crude to Asia. Portugal Football League eyes selling a stake in media rights, appointing Oakvale Capital to advise on a potential stake sale in the unit managing broadcasting and commercial rights. Mexico trade consultations favor tweaking USMCA over major revamp, with consultations suggesting the US-Mexico-Canada free trade deal shouldn't undergo major renegotiation but instead be improved and strengthened.