Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Market Turmoil
Stocks slid and bond yields surged as the Iran war entered its fourth day, reigniting inflation fears. Bonds slumped on expectations that rising oil prices will delay Federal Reserve rate cuts. The dollar strengthened on track for its biggest two-day rally in nearly a year, while gold fell after an initial flight to safety.
Private Credit Stress
Blue Owl shares dropped below its IPO price amid mounting concerns over private credit performance and AI disruption. Apollo's Rowan warned of an impending "shakeout" for private markets firms, citing rising default risks. Investor redemptions have spooked the sector, Moody’s official said, adding to the pressure.
Energy Supply Shocks
Iraq halted oil production at its biggest fields as storage filled, potentially removing 3 million barrels daily from the market. Qatar’s LNG shutdown sent European gas prices soaring 40% to a three-year high. Norway sees no capacity to boost gas output, tightening the global supply picture further.
Corporate Updates
Vale Base Metals aims to be IPO-ready by midyear, accelerating plans for its nickel-and-copper business. Target shares rose after providing strong full-year guidance, while Best Buy surged on an earnings beat but warned of tepid consumer demand ahead. Wall Street renewed bullishness on Palantir, citing defense growth.
Policy & Central Banks
Fed President Williams said further rate cuts depend on inflation progress, a view echoed by Fed’s Schmid who noted inflation remains near a full point above target. UK Chancellor Reeves claimed a £23.6 billion fiscal buffer for 2029-30 but downgraded 2026 growth. The UK cut bond sales to a three-year low as finances improved.
Geopolitical Ripples
India’s gas importers started cutting industrial supply after Qatar’s outage. UAE markets will reopen March 4 after a two-day closure. Egypt’s pound weakened past 50 per dollar on conflict fears. Canada committed C$3.5 billion to boost critical minerals projects, seeking supply chain alternatives.
Regional Market Moves
European stocks skidded to one-month lows. Morgan Stanley advised caution on European equities pending continued tactical risks. JPMorgan argued the selloff in European bank stocks is overdone. South African rate-hike bets rose as oil-driven inflation fears resurfaced.