Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Energy & Commodities
Oil prices are not expected to see a significant jump despite the Middle East conflict, with FGE Nexant ECA Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki suggesting the Iranian conflict will be resolved within four weeks. However, fuel prices jumped on Monday with diesel surging more than crude oil as the widening war threatens exports from Persian Gulf refineries. Soybean oil jumped to a two-year high, tracking crude prices after strikes by the US and Israel on Iran.
Aluminum climbed on concerns that critical supply routes for Middle Eastern producers will be disrupted, while Australian LNG shares surged after tankers stopped crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices jumped 2% amid the widening US-Israel conflict with Iran, as investors sought safer assets.
Asian Markets
Chinese automakers recorded a sharp drop in sales in February as demand waned during the Lunar New Year, while Geely extended its lead over BYD with the biggest sales gap since 2022. The Hang Seng Tech Index slipped beneath a crucial support line, suggesting more selloffs ahead given geopolitical tensions.
Indian stocks erased US trade deal gains on Middle East conflict concerns, while Indian refiners are eyeing Russian oil again as the Iran crisis hits supply. Indonesia's central bank said it is intervening in foreign-exchange markets as the US-Israeli war sapped sentiment for the currency.
Currencies & Fixed Income
Asian FX fell as Middle East strikes spurred oil surge, with the South Korean won leading losses. The Australian dollar has scope to extend its advance versus the greenback, even as speculative bullish bets on the currency stay near the highest level in more than eight years.
Treasuries edged lower as traders held back from haven buying after reports of conciliatory messages from both the US and Iran. BOJ deputy governor Himino signaled more interest rate hikes are likely, as Japan faces rising oil prices that risk delivering a fresh inflation shock.
US Markets
US dollar strengthened on liquidity demand amid Middle East conflict, as "cash is king" mentality favored the greenback. Wall Street futures fell on US-Iran escalation but curbed early losses. Blue Owl, the private-credit behemoth, is starting to show cracks as its founders try to save it.
Goldman Sachs warned European natural gas could jump 130% on Hormuz disruption, while Trump announced the first US fatalities of Iran operations, with three US service members killed during operations against Iran. Markets pared losses as Trump talked of easing sanctions on Iran.