Public Markets 3 Hours

Last updated: May 11, 2026, 2:30 AM ET

Global Equities & Risk Assets

Emerging-market equities scaled a record high as investors aggressively bought technology shares, seemingly dismissing stalled peace negotiations between the US and Iran. This risk-on appetite extended to commodities, where copper aimed for its highest-ever close despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, while FTSE 100 futures climbed ahead of the London open, underpinned by gains in oil. The broader market rally, however, masks sector-specific impacts, as large-cap groups have gained $5.4tn since the conflict began, with semiconductors accounting for the majority of that appreciation, masking other corporate hits.

Geopolitical Ripples & Commodity Markets

The Middle East tensions are driving distinct market adjustments across Asia, prompting Indian Prime Minister Modi urged citizens to conserve foreign exchange by limiting overseas travel and postponing gold purchases for at least a year, which subsequently slammed domestic jewelry stocks. Simultaneously, the oil volatility is proving lucrative for European energy trading desks, with majors like Shell and BP reaping up to $4.75bn from trading, even as overall sector demand appears strained. This dynamic is also pushing some Asian nations toward carbon-intensive alternatives, as reflected by a jump in coal shipments to offset disrupted gas supplies, while India itself is driving the global rise in new coal-based steel capacity threatening green production goals.

Fixed Income & Central Bank Policy

Rising inflation expectations driven by the Middle East conflict are forcing a recalibration of monetary policy outlooks globally. A survey indicates the European Central Bank will hike rates twice in 2026, although Vice President Luis de Guindos cautioned for 'prudence' as the full impact on growth remains unclear. In Asia, Indonesia's central bank increased outstanding bills by the most in two years in an effort to attract capital and stabilize the weakening rupiah. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields continued their ascent in Asian trade, with short-term rates rising more sharply than long-term equivalents, extending Friday's trend following strong payroll figures.

Currency and Regional Developments

The yen’s upward movement against the dollar appears restrained by ongoing fears of Japanese intervention, with analysts predicting the USD/JPY pair will likely trade in a narrow range near 154.80-158.40 this week. Elsewhere, New Zealand dollar bears may be surprised, as analysts suggest the currency could rally near-term based on a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and any potential de-escalation in the Middle East. In corporate finance, BYD Co. projects annual sales growth despite tepid domestic demand, fueled by aggressive global EV expansion, while China exported more plug-in vehicles than traditional cars for the first time in April as automakers sought overseas markets.

Private Markets & UK Politics

Concerns are brewing in the UK bridging loan sector, which is rattling US private credit firms following recent high-profile insolvencies. In response to broader investor redemption requests in private credit, Blackstone Inc. mandated senior executives to inject capital into its flagship fund to restore confidence. On the political front in the UK, Labour leader Keir Starmer is fighting to regain support following poor local election results, while the Schroder family’s £10bn asset sale provided one of the few bright spots in London dealmaking news.