Public Markets 3 Hours

Last updated: March 25, 2026, 11:30 PM ET

Geopolitical Tensions & Commodity Markets

Base metals slipped across the board* as markets remained highly sensitive to US-Iran negotiation uncertainty, which is simultaneously driving up energy costs and prompting localized inflation spikes. In Thailand, fuel prices jumped by 22%* following the government’s move to slash subsidies strained by rising global oil prices, while executives privately warned that the current energy shock is far more reaching than the administration’s optimistic messaging suggests. Adding to the region's instability, the Bank of Korea flagged systemic risks* arising from escalating Middle East tensions, even as it affirmed the financial system remained broadly stable in March. Meanwhile, Western firms are pressing ahead with Gulf expansion* megaprojects aimed at tapping the region for more than just petroleum, despite the ongoing conflict.

Inflation Outlook & Tech Sector Volatility

The persistent inflationary impulse stemming from massive expenditures in artificial intelligence and the global energy transition is predicted to last decades, according to the chief executive of a major infrastructure fund, suggesting that short-term market relief may be illusory. This backdrop of long-term cost pressures comes as investors grapple with immediate technological disruption; shares in memory and storage products slumped initially after Google researchers unveiled a new compression technique, though market observers suggest this correction may be temporary rather than an existential threat to the sector. Concurrently, the race for AI dominance is manifesting in new asset classes, with Chinese firms like DeepSeek and Mini Max driving a surge in domestic AI tokens as their models overtake US rivals in token consumption metrics.*

Fixed Income & Policy Shifts

In fixed income, the prospect of near-term monetary tightening in Tokyo sent Japan’s two-year government bond yield climbing to a 1996 high, even as other market participants reassessed geopolitical risk factors influencing short-term trading. Across the Pacific, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s ambition to substantially reduce the central bank’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet is expected to require more than a single term to achieve, according to commentary from financial analysts. On the regulatory front, BlackRock President Rob Kapito warned investors that the market is currently underpricing the growth-dampening and inflationary risks emanating from the Middle East conflict.*

Corporate Activity & Local Governance

In corporate news, German chemical group Henkel AG is reportedly nearing a definitive agreement to acquire the high-end haircare brand Olaplex Holdings Inc., a deal valued in the billions. In investment banking departures, Citigroup Inc. confirmed the exit of Jan Metzger, the co-head of its Asia investment banking unit, just six months after his role was restructured. Separately, in municipal finance, Mayor Zohran Mamdani plans to *implement $1.3 billion in program cuts, relying on expected savings from a delay in the state mandate for smaller class sizes and a scaling back of rental assistance expansion commitments.