Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: July 4, 2026, 8:30 PM ET

Global Markets & Geopolitics

The nation’s 250th anniversary celebrations were overshadowed by escalating political tensions and extreme weather, 63, 88. President Trump, speaking at Mount Rushmore, cast his opponents as "communists", while potential 2028 contenders like Gavin Newsom and Wes Moore criticized his record. Amidst this backdrop, a quest for a unifying dessert for the anniversary faced challenges navigating a polarized Washington. Meanwhile, in Tehran, huge crowds gathered for the state funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed early in the U.S.-Israeli conflict, 52. His passing has led to commemorations unlike any in recent history, though behind the facade of unity, divisions among Iran's leaders are apparent.

Energy & Commodities

Oil prices are tumbling as a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran unleashes a wave of supply, potentially leading to a global glut. Middle East producers are reportedly desperate to sell stockpiled crude, though gasoline and diesel inventories remain constrained by shipping worries. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports have surged close to pre-war levels as tankers navigate the Strait of Hormuz again. At least eight ships turned back from the Omani coast, indicating the reopening of the Strait remains complicated. China is urging "unimpeded passage" through the Strait amid discussions of potential fees for passage. Russia has also seen its oil infrastructure targeted, with an oil terminal in St. Petersburg attacked by drones.

US Economy & Markets

Investors are pulling back from U.S. stocks at the fastest pace since March, with outflows exceeding $3.8 billion in the past three months. This comes as stock fund returns of 17.1% in the past quarter masked underlying volatility driven by an IPO surge, war rallies, and shifting Federal Reserve expectations. Small stocks, however, are experiencing their largest run in decades, with the Russell 2000 climbing approximately 22% in the first half of the year. The Dow industrials rose following June hiring data that indicated slower-than-expected labor market growth, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 dipped amid weakness in technology stocks. U.S. equities ended the holiday-shortened week little changed, erasing earlier gains as technology stocks trailed the S&P 500 for a second consecutive day.

Corporate & Financial News

The market for clean power purchase agreements, favored by tech giants like Google and Meta, is expected to rise sharply as Biden-era support ends, coinciding with increased demand from AI data centers. This surge in demand is placing significant strain on electricity grids, with data centers being ordered to use backup power amid the heatwave. In a notable development, Carlyle Group Inc. has hired JM Financial Ltd. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to advise on a potential initial public offering of its India-based healthcare revenue cycle management business, aiming for $400 million. Meanwhile, European stocks reached a record high, marking their fourth consecutive week of gains, buoyed by optimism that the Federal Reserve will hold off on rate hikes.

Technology & AI

The rapid growth of artificial intelligence is creating significant demand for data centers, which are consuming far more water than most tech giants report. This increased water usage at power plants supplying these facilities is a growing concern. In the realm of robotics, viral mishaps highlight the challenges in ensuring humanoid robots can operate safely around humans. Investors are also being cautioned about the current AI trade, with some suggesting that market returns might be masking a broader reset. The latest acronym on Wall Street, "MANGOS," refers to Meta, Anthropic, Nvidia, and other companies at the forefront of the AI boom.

International Markets & Trade

Germany is embarking on a new effort to stimulate its economy, with upcoming data expected to reveal the cumulative impact of the Iran war . In the fixed income markets, overseas investors offloaded the most Japanese bonds in three years during June, as the debt’s performance lagged behind global peers. China and the United States are seeking to reduce tariffs on certain agricultural products to preserve a broader trade truce. China’s coast guard has rotated its patrol task group east of Taiwan, continuing law-enforcement patrols in the waters. Meanwhile, Canada is planning a new oil pipeline to reduce its dependence on the U.S. and supply Asia.

Geopolitical Tensions & Sanctions

Blacklisted entities have reportedly handled $100 billion in cryptocurrencies in 2025, funding terrorism and weapons proliferation, underscoring the challenges of sanctions evasion. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin visited the battlefield and vowed to take more of Ukraine, denouncing Ukraine’s battlefield achievements as fabricated. Ukraine has pushed back on Putin’s claim that Russian forces have taken control of Kostiantynivka, a strategic logistics center in the Donetsk region. Russia continues to bombard the Ukrainian capital, with at least 21 people killed in drone and missile strikes on Kyiv.

Financial Crime & Regulation

Insider trading cases are concluding with few prison sentences, as exemplified by former Moelis & Co. banker Benjamin Taylor, who is beyond the reach of U.S. law enforcement. The Justice Department is investigating alleged insider trading schemes that may have generated $100 million on options bets ahead of a Chinese regulatory crackdown. Meanwhile, the U.S. Supreme Court has allowed a reporter to be fined for failing to disclose sources, a decision that could impact journalistic practices.

Latin America

Venezuela’s official death toll from recent twin earthquakes has risen to nearly 3,000. Finance Minister Dario Durigan of Brazil stated that credit measures introduced by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government do not undermine monetary policy. In Chile, mining companies SQM and Codelco are planning to boost output from their lithium partnership by over 70%, betting on sustained demand for batteries. Argentina has expressed anger at the prospect of an oil boom in the Falkland Islands, where the first commercial production is slated for 2028.

Europe

Germany's economic rebound is poised to begin, with upcoming data reflecting the impact of the Iran war. France's final budget showdown under President Emmanuel Macron is shaping up to be the decade's most high-stakes fiscal clash. European Central Bank Governing Council member Emmanuel Moulin stated the bank is in a "good position" following its June rate hike, as falling oil prices ease inflationary pressures. France's Thales group will incur a charge after Germany scrapped a frigate procurement program.

Asia

Energy-hungry Asian nations are already learning lessons from the Iran crisis, recognizing the need for larger buffers and more diverse fossil-fuel sources. China's ambassador has warned of a "Cold War mentality" as relations with Australia have improved over the past four years. India plans to ramp up share sales from state-owned companies to offset budget impacts from oil prices. India will also continue to expand its oil refining capacity to ensure supply chain security.

Special Events & Cultural Moments

The nation's 250th anniversary celebrations were marked by diverse events across the country, from large city gatherings to backyard barbecues, with many Americans finding ways to salute themselves. However, an oppressive heat wave stifled much of the United States, leading to canceled parades and temporary closures of public events, 88. In New York City, the wedding of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce drew significant attention, rivaling the Met Gala with its celebrity guest list and tight security, 62, 72. Meanwhile, World Cup soccer has provided a bright spot amidst political turmoil in the United States and globally.