Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: June 18, 2026, 5:30 AM ET

Market Sentiment and Geopolitics

Global markets surged on optimism following the signing of an agreement between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an act that prompted a reversal in tech stocks and pushed U.S. stock futures higher. The geopolitical relief, coupled with a positive reaction to the Federal Reserve’s latest moves, helped indices in Japan and Korea reach fresh highs. However, the transition remains fraught with uncertainty; vessels have only just begun to navigate the critical waterway, and analysts at Goldman Sachs warn that oil flows might only recover to 70% of pre-war levels as regional producers maintain reliance on alternative routes. Despite the deal, energy shipping remains disrupted as bosses warn of ongoing logistical challenges that could sustain pricing volatility.

Energy and Commodities

The impact of the Hormuz agreement has been most visible in energy markets, where oil prices retreated as traders bet on a swift restoration of supply chains. This downturn has provided welcome relief at the pump, with average U.S. gasoline prices dipping below $4 a gallon for the first time since March, although prices may stay elevated due to damaged infrastructure and risky transport conditions. Meanwhile, U.S. oil stockpiles have fallen to their lowest levels since 2014, drained by a surge in exports during the conflict. Elsewhere in the sector, BHP Group announced a $2.3 billion writedown on its Jansen potash project in Canada, citing a series of cost and time overruns that have added $2 billion to the expansion’s expected budget.

Central Bank Policy and Fixed Income

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh made his debut with a penchant for detail that sparked immediate speculation regarding future rate hikes, leading to a decline in copper prices as investors recalibrated their inflation expectations. The shift toward a more hawkish stance has capped the near-term upside for Asian currencies, while JGBs tracked U.S. Treasury declines in early Tokyo trade. In Europe, the Swiss National Bank kept interest rates at zero and maintained its readiness to intervene in currency markets to guard against geopolitical turmoil. Furthermore, the Czech central bank is considering its first rate hike since 2022 to combat domestic price pressures, while 90% of Bank of Japan watchers anticipate another rate increase by year-end.

Corporate Activity and M&A

Consolidation activity continues to reshape the corporate landscape, highlighted by the £10bn take-private of Intertek by EQT, a deal representing the latest major exit from the UK stock exchange. In the retail sector, Yum China and Long Range Capital acquired Pizza Hut for $2.7 billion, splitting the chain’s operations between mainland China and international markets. Technology and infrastructure deals remain a priority for private equity, with Blackstone launching a new platform to lend against physical assets like inventory and equipment. However, not all ventures are succeeding; Thoma Bravo will lose $5bn on its investment in Medallia as it hands the software group to lenders, marking one of the largest private equity losses since 2008.

Technology and AI Trends

The artificial intelligence sector is seeing a massive divergence in fortunes, as BE Semiconductor raised its targets on the back of surging AI demand, while Kingboard Laminates has rallied 550% thanks to heavy buying from mainland investors. Despite this enthusiasm, JPMorgan strategists warned that the sharp swings in semiconductor stocks increase the risk of market tantrums, forcing some investors to trim their allocations. Political risks are also complicating the sector, with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan restricting staff access to tools like Anthropic’s Claude in Hong Kong, reflecting growing concerns over data security and regulatory scrutiny. On the venture front, SpaceX moved rapidly to acquire the AI startup Cursor for $60 billion just days after its own IPO, signaling a new era of aggressive expansion for the firm.

Retail and Economic Indicators

British consumer sentiment remains under pressure, as Tesco’s sales growth disappointed due to wet weather and a difficult comparison with the previous year, despite an 8.9% increase in online growth. The struggle for growth extends to the wider economy, where retail sales in China declined for the first time in three years. In the U.S., smaller entities are finding the environment increasingly difficult, with small businesses reporting that tariffs and high energy costs have sapped their resilience. Meanwhile, the National Stock Exchange of India has moved closer to an IPO that could value the exchange at $53 billion, delivering potentially massive returns for early backers including Morgan Stanley and Temasek.