Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: May 26, 2026, 2:30 AM ET

Geopolitics & Commodities

The Middle East conflict continued to roil global markets as U.S. strikes on Iranian missile sites near a major port curbed optimism over a potential peace deal, pushing Brent crude back below $100 a barrel on Tuesday while stocks trimmed gains US strikes Iranian missile sites. Oil futures fell roughly 7% on the prospect of a deal, though investors remained skeptical of the talks' durability, and wheat futures extended their longest losing streak since January as traders digested progress in Iran ceasefire negotiations wheat extends decline. Copper held its ground as markets tracked prospects for a U.S.-Iran resolution, but India's gas power generation plunged to its lowest level in at least six years as fuel shipments were hit by the war and record summer demand strained electricity supplies Iran war squeezes India's gas supply. Meanwhile, fuel prices have been driven roughly 50% higher by the Strait of Hormuz blockade, adding pressure to already strained consumer budgets US consumers face spending squeeze.

Central Banks & Fixed Income

European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said the bank should raise rates in June even if the Middle East conflict resolves quickly, signaling that inflation risks still outweigh geopolitical uncertainties ECB should hike rates in June. At the same time, outgoing ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said a spike in energy costs has not yet turned into second-round effects across the euro-area economy, suggesting the central bank's vigilance has not yet fully priced in transmission mechanisms Vigilant ECB hasn't seen second-round effects. Across the Atlantic, a key Treasury yield gap shrank to its tightest level in a year as traders ramped up bets the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer under new chairman Kevin Warsh Treasury curve flashes higher-for-longer warning, while BlackRock's Saigal said there are "sufficient factors" to justify a Fed cut rather than a hike Fed cut justification seen by BlackRock. Treasurys rose in Asia on Tuesday following a U.S. holiday, and Japanese government bonds extended their rally in Tokyo trade before pulling back on technical correction signals, with BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino emphasizing that proper policy adjustments are key to keeping market participants' faith amid a recent government debt selloff BOJ deputy chief underscores proper policy.

China Markets & Capital Controls

China's latest crackdown on cross-border stock trading to tighten control over capital outflows hit Hong Kong assets worth as much as $32 billion, with a Chinese online brokerage tycoon losing more than a quarter of his fortune in a single day trading tycoon loses $1.7bn. The onshore yuan could strengthen to as much as five per dollar if local firms unwind a massive buildup of greenback holdings, triggering a sharp reversal in capital flows, according to Macquarie yuan may hit five per dollar. Beijing is also tightening controls on overseas stock trading amid growing demand from mainland investors for access to foreign equities, a tension that reflects the government's broader effort to manage capital outflows China tightening controls on overseas trading. Chinese coking coal futures pushed higher for a second session after a deadly mine disaster in Shanxi province, with investors watching for a broader government crackdown on the sector coking coal prices extend gains, while aluminum market participants brace for disruption as Guinea finalizes plans to limit bauxite exports Guinea export curbs threaten aluminum. Chinese semiconductor stocks rose in Hong Kong on optimism over a potential Huawei technology breakthrough chip stocks rise on Huawei hopes, even as China's new solar installations fell for a fourth straight month in April, underscoring persistent weakness in domestic demand solar installations fall.

AI, Tech & Corporate Governance

The AI boom is delivering momentum investors their best returns in decades as the world's hottest stocks power ahead despite Iran war concerns AI rally drives momentum stocks, while venture capitalist John Doerr called the AI revolution the biggest tech "tsunami" ever and said it is if anything underhyped AI called biggest tech tsunami. SpaceX's upcoming IPO prospectus contains provisions that would give Elon Musk more operational freedom and potentially less accountability, raising questions about governance standards for the world's most valuable private tech firms SpaceX IPO governance provisions. Spotify struck a deal with Universal Music allowing subscribers to create "controlled" covers and remixes, defending the use of AI-generated music against industry pushback Spotify defends AI-generated music. Meanwhile, the tech sector's race to build AI data centers is driving big US names into bond markets, with companies tapping debt as they fund massive infrastructure buildouts tech giants dominate bond markets, and Meta's chief technology officer Andrew Bosworth is leading an internal push to transform the company's workforce using artificial intelligence Meta's AI workforce transformation.

M&A & Strategic Moves

Two groups submitted bids to become the strategic investor in Brazil's Copasa, advancing the Minas Gerais state government's plan to privatize one of the country's largest water and sewage utilities in what could be one of the year's biggest deals Aegea and Equatorial bid for Copasa. Hong Kong-based Jardines made its first acquisition since a strategic overhaul, paying $2.4 billion for Australian radiology operator I-MED Jardines signals pivot with radiology deal. Spanish utility Cox ABG Group secured a $4.2 billion asset acquisition in Mexico, funded partly with a 20% bridge loan that used its own shares as collateral Cox Group bridge loan for Mexico deal. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is exploring options for PT Bank Danamon Indonesia, including a take-private or a partial stake sale to increase the public float MUFG explores Danamon stake. In China, GSR Ventures Management is raising a new fund targeting $350 million, having been an early backer of the Red Note social media app GSR seeks $350mn new fund.

Political Risk & Emerging Markets

Political turmoil is derailing emerging market rallies from Latin America to Eastern Europe, with investors getting slammed by a fresh wave of instability political risk derails EM rallies. India's corporate earnings revival is under threat as commodity prices surge, with Bof A warning that even a quick end to the Middle East war would leave profits under pressure India earnings revival under threat. The rupee strengthened as oil prices dropped on hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal and after the central bank governor suggested the currency may be undervalued rupee climbs on oil relief. South Korea will monitor roughly $37 billion in overseas private credit exposure following global industry scares