Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: May 25, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Geopolitics & Energy Markets

Oil prices plunged about 7% over the past three days as signs of progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks fueled expectations that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen, with Brent crude falling back below $100 a barrel for the first time in weeks. European natural gas dropped 5% on the same optimism, while a supertanker carrying Iraqi crude exited the Persian Gulf into the Arabian Sea amid the negotiations, marking the first such crossing since the blockade began. Even with a potential accord, however, moving the estimated 1,500 stranded vessels will be a complicated process involving demining and re-establishing navigation protocols, suggesting any relief for energy markets will take weeks to materialize. An LNG tanker destined for India also slipped through Hormuz for the first time since the conflict started, offering a glimmer of hope for gas-starved Asian buyers.

The war-driven supply shock is already roiling manufacturing in Japan and South Korea, where a shortage of naphtha is disrupting production of plastics and synthetic fibers, while India’s gas power generation has plunged to its lowest in at least six years as fuel shipments are squeezed during a record-breaking heat wave. A little-known Swiss trading company played a key role in the transit of an oil supertanker earlier this month, highlighting the lucrative back-channel role of intermediaries during the crisis. On the diplomatic front, President Trump acknowledged that the deal “isn’t even fully negotiated”, with nuclear stockpiles, enrichment and missiles left for future rounds, while Israel — a partner in the war — has been largely excluded from the peace talks, a humbling setback for Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Equity Markets & IPO Activity

European shares advanced broadly on Iran deal hopes, with Italy’s benchmark equity index hitting its first record in 26 years, supercharged by a rally in energy and semiconductor stocks. Global momentum stocks are enjoying their best run on record thanks to the AI boom, even as worries over slower growth due to the Iran war persist. In New York, The Mandalorian and Grogu debuted at $100 million over the holiday weekend, giving Disney a strong theatrical return for the Star Wars franchise after a seven-year hiatus.

Several notable IPOs are on the horizon. Indian rapid-commerce firm Zepto plans to file publicly in early June for an IPO that may raise up to $1 billion, while AS Watson, the owner of Superdrug, is pressing ahead with a $30 billion dual listing in Hong Kong and London before the end of 2026. In the geothermal energy space, a recent hot IPO is lifting companies in the sector, as demand from big tech for clean, baseload power revives interest in an overlooked technology. Meanwhile, Chinese online brokerage tycoon lost $1.7 billion in a single day after Beijing cracked down on illicit cross-border stock trading, a move that could affect as much as HK$250 billion ($32 of Hong Kong assets, according to Citic Securities.

Fixed Income & Currencies

The U.S. dollar extended its fall on optimism over a U.S.-Iran deal, while gold rose on a weaker dollar and improved inflation expectations. The euro-area’s interest rate outlook remains a key focus: ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank is likely to revise its inflation outlook upward at next month’s meeting, while Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras argued that a rate hike may be inevitable to preserve credibility. His colleague Francois Villeroy de Galhau noted that the energy spike hasn’t yet produced second-round effects, but the ECB’s hawkish tilt is nevertheless pressuring bond markets.

In emerging markets, India’s rupee strengthened as oil prices fell and the central bank governor suggested the currency may be undervalued. Indian debt fund managers are tapping multi-year high swap rates to juice fixed-income returns. SoftBank Group tapped the retail market again with a ¥260 billion ($1.6 yen bond sale, its second such offering in two months. Short sellers have reaped more than $2.3 billion in profits betting against online gambling companies, which are under pressure from prediction-market popularity in the U.S. and steep tax rises in the U.K.

Central Banks & Monetary Policy

The Federal Reserve may have enough reason to justify a rate cut rather than a hike, according to BlackRock’s Rohan Saigal, who cited “sufficient factors” under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Across the Atlantic, the ECB faces a delicate balancing act: Stournaras warned the central bank must avoid an excessively restrictive approach that could burden growth, even as Lagarde signaled an upward revision to inflation forecasts. The Czech Republic’s prime minister urged the central bank to cut interest rates, doubling down on lower borrowing costs despite growing inflation risks from energy prices. Ghana’s central bank announced it will increase gold purchases from large-scale producers to 30% of output starting June 1, part of a broader strategy to bolster reserves.

Auto & Luxury Goods

Ferrari unveiled the Luce, its first fully electric car, on Monday, a glass-clad speedster designed with Jony Ive and priced at around $640,000 that will test the appetite of the superrich for EVs at a time when electric vehicle demand has fallen out of favor in the U.S. The Italian automaker named the model after the Italian word for light, signaling its bet that exclusivity and design can overcome market headwinds. In China, the Maextro — a Huawei-powered luxury sedan with a 40-inch screen and self-parking features — sells for about $173,000, positioning itself as a domestic answer to Rolls-Royce.

Commodities & Raw Materials

Guinea, the world’s top bauxite producer, plans to announce export controls in June to bolster aluminum prices, a move that could ripple through global supply chains for the metal. Ghana’s increased gold purchases from miners underscore a broader trend of central banks stockpiling bullion. Nigeria’s economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter as both its oil and non-oil sectors eased, while South Africa’s Pick n Pay slumped after delaying a key turnaround target by a year.

Tech & AI Investing

Venture capitalist John Doerr called AI the biggest tech “tsunami” ever, arguing the revolution is underhyped even as the sector drives momentum stocks to record runs. But the technology is also raising alarms: Pope Leo’s 42,300-word encyclical warned of risks from AI misuse, while the U.K.’s AI Security Institute is hunting for dangers lurking in advanced models. Researchers have shown that guardrails on Meta and Google models can be stripped in minutes, creating systems that provide responses on biological weapons and malware. On Main Street, AI agents are scraping spreadsheets at small businesses like bakeries to help manage growth, expanding the technology’s footprint beyond multibillion-dollar enterprises.